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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (40) 676

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (40) 676

September 24-30, 2007

Main political trends of the week

The main topic of last week was the upshot of the intrigue around the new composition of the government. Despite that the new ministers were announced on Monday, the whole essence of the transformations became clear closer to the second half of the week, when the text of decree setting the structure of federal bodies of the executive power.

The presidential decree envisages both serious redistribution of authority among offices and establishment of super offices – state committees. As a result of the authority redistribution, Regional Development Ministry and Ministry of Justice are reinforced, whereas the “liberal” wing of the government lost, although this “defeat” was set off after Aleksey Kudrin’s status was increased. The establishment of new offices in the state committees rank means that the chief idea of the administrative reform held in 2004 – distribution of functions between ministries, services, and agencies – was betrayed.

Apart from the president’s wish to show his domination in the politics, one of the main reasons for the dissolution of the Fradkov’s government was because the executive branch had been extremely heterogeneous and conflicting. However, the new government still has it – clans inside the Cabinet may conflict both over ideology (the choice between industry-specific and territorial, liberal and protectionist approaches) and over purely opportunistic issues related to the distribution of authority.

It is noteworthy that the heightened level of conflict last week was seen around other state power bodies as well. In particular, police arrested three high-rank officials of the Audit Chamber, which can be considered an echo of the struggle for the “chief anti-corruption office” status.

The authorities in charge of the preparations for the Winter Olympics 2014 were finally named. Unlike the “structures’ competition” plan that the former chief of the Economic Development and Trade Ministry had lobbied, the confirmed vertical of power envisages strict hierarchy that includes almost all officials involved in the project. The head of the hierarchy is of course President Vladimir Putin.

Tendency toward intensification of paternalism in economy has manifested. This was proved by the statements made both by the new Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov and the traditionally avoiding public appearances Head of Rosoboronexport Sergei Chemezov, who is one of the most influential lobbyists in the country and belongs to the president’s circle of trust. Most likely, as a consequence of this tendency the establishment of state corporations and insertion of vast funds into them will speed up.

Last week, the parliamentary campaign came back to the foreground. Its role in the Transition 2008 project is still important, however, only its results will be decisive. So far it is only clear that the first three candidates on parties’ tickets will not have charismatic and Kremlin-critical politicians (the parties’ congresses early last week proved this). The situation around the “power’s party” should clear up after The United Russia’s congress scheduled for October 1-2.

Major events Sep 24, 2007 - Sep 30, 2007

EventTo whose benefitTo whose disadvantageWhat to expect

Announcement of the top three candidates on the Patriots of Russia parliament ticket

KPRF, JR

The Patriots of Russia

The Patriots will act as spoilers for KPRF and JR and will not get into the State Duma

Announcement of the top three candidates on the Civil Force parliament ticket

 

SPS, Yabloko

The inclusion of Viktor Pokhmelkin will not increase the party’s popularity

The composition of the new government was formed

Viktor Zubkov, Aleksey Kudrin, Dmitry Kozak, Vladimir Ustinov, Andrei Krainiy

EDTM

The main goal of the new government will be to restore order in financial streams but not modernization

Turnover in the Interior Ministry

  

The rotations are formal, except for the layoff of Public Order Security Department head – he will most likely be replaced by a special service officer

Tatyana Paramonova appointed presidential plenipotentiary in the National Banking Council

 

Sergei Ignatyev

Paramonova will be Ignatyev’s counterweight but will not be able to influence key decision-making

Oleg Markov appointed head of Rosfinmonitoring

 

Aleksey Kudrin

The appointment of the people from the president’s team will continue

The introduction of the Rostechnologii bill in the State Duma

Sergei Chemezov

Viktor Ivanov

The bill will be authorized by the current State Duma

It was informed that soon Interregional Inspection No.11 will be established inside the Federal Tax Ministry to monitor the largest natural entities

  

The Inspection No.11 will be established but this will not lead to screw-tightening

President Vladimir Putin met with The People’s Union Party Leader Sergei Baburin

The People’s Union

LDPR (?), KPRF (?)

It is possible that the party will use nationalist slogans during parliament campaign but it will not get into the State Duma

High-rank officials of the Audit Chamber arrested on graft charges

Alexander Bastrykin

Sergei Stepashin

Stepashin will get the “warning” and reduce efforts

Tatyana Nesterenko appointed deputy minister of finances

Aleksey Kudrin

 

Nesterenko will prove an adequate replacement for Tatyana Golikova

The structure of bodies in charge of the preparations for Winter Olympics 2014 has been formed

Viktor Zubkov,

Alexander Zhukov

 

As long as Vladimir Putin is head of this vertical, conflicts between the officials engaged in it will be unlikely

Vladimir Putin confirmed members of the Public Chamber  

The place and status of the PC in politics will remain unchanged until May 2008

Volume: 17 pages


If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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