Medvedev's first term may become Putin's third term

The lineup of forces in the new Russian government indicates that Dmitry Medvedev's first presidential term may become Vladimir Putin's third term, a Russian political analyst writes in the popular daily Vedomosti.

According to Konstantin Simonov, head of Russia's National Energy Security Fund, the key appointments, including to the post of chief of the presidential staff, were apparently proposed by Putin. Only Justice Minister Alexander Konovalov, former presidential envoy in the Volga Federal District, can be seen as 'Medvedev's man.'

Putin has preserved the main groups that developed during his rule, keeping the key figures and only shifting some of them to higher or comparable posts. As Simonov writes, Putin is moving from a system of checks and balances in elite groups to intertwining them.

Igor Sechin, former deputy head of the Kremlin administration, has been appointed deputy prime minister responsible for the real economy sector (with some exceptions). He has also been put in charge of natural resources and so is in for difficult relations with Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev, who has no liking for the state-controlled oil company Rosneft.

Viktor Ustinov has lost his post of justice minister. Nikolai Patrushev, former head of the FSB and a political ally of Sechin, has been appointed head of the Russian Security Council, which will supervise all the security-related agencies.

Sechin will keep his post of director of Rosneft. This promises to prove interesting, as far as relations go with Deputy Prime Minister Igor Shuvalov, previously Putin's top economic adviser, who has been put in charge of state property and antimonopoly policy.

Another matter for intrigue will be Shuvalov's relations with Viktor Zubkov, the new head of the board of directors of the energy giant Gazprom. In fact, Zubkov is likely to take over all of Dmitry Medvedev's former posts, including the post of first deputy prime minister.

The situation with state-owned companies and corporations promises to be very interesting. None of their heads have been offered posts in the government, which means that Putin wants to control them. He does not intend to allow state-owned companies and corporations to become independent and therefore uncontrollable players. So we can expect wars and conflicts between state corporations and the government.

The fact that Finance Minister Alexei Kudrin has preserved the post of deputy prime minister is a bad sign for state corporations, Simonov writes.

And one more thing: only officials who are members of close-knit groups survive reshuffles, while those who think they can act independently usually fall victim to their arrogance. This is why Viktor Khristenko has kept a ministerial post, even though his ministry has been halved, while Leonid Reiman, former IT and Communications Minister, has not.

Source: Vedomosti (What the Russian papers say, RIA Novosti) - May 13, 2008