Attempts to promote Trans-Afghan gas pipeline

Within the framework of the session of the Turkmen-Afghan intergovernmental commission held in Kabul on August 30 the sides signed a framework accord on construction of the Trans-Afghan Gas Pipeline (TAPI) that is to run through Pakistan to India. The pipeline's capacity is planned to be about 33bn cu m of natural gas per year with deliveries to start already in 2015.

Ashkhabad's demonstrative activity on the TAPI project is aimed at continuing its policy of blackmailing the current and potential consumers by risks of losing the Turkmen commodity. Countries and companies interested in Turkmen gas are urged to invest in local deposits and infrastructure construction as soon as possible to prevent the assets from being taken by others. Simultaneously this is expected to make consumers agree to growth in prices.

To achieve this goal Ashkhabad has already tried to oppose Russia, the EU and China to each other and now it is trying to involve Pakistan and India (as well as Iran) in the same game sending its emissaries in all political and geographical directions. However, in reality the Trans-Afghan project remains unfeasible due to the continuing civil war in Afghanistan. The Taliban may well return to power amid escalation of military activities in Afghanistan and even in Pakistan, which does not facilitate implementation of long-term large investments in construction. But Turkmenistan is using even illusory prospects of TAPI to exert psychological pressure on other potential buyers of Turkmen gas.

By Stanistav Mitrakhovich, NESF leading expert