Current Status of Russian Oil Exports

Getting over the 2022-2024 sanctions is the most important test for the Russian oil industry.

After the US, United Kingdom, EU, and G7 introduced a ban on buying Russian oil and petroleum products (with some exceptions) and the price cap mechanism, Russia managed to find alternative sale options in countries that are now commonly called the “Global South”.

Overall figures look not bad. Exports of crude oil and petroleum products have shrunk somewhat in 2024, but Russian regulators primarily see this as a result of the obligations as part of the OPEC+ deal.

However, it is important to consider exports in detail. This is what we do in the new NESF report.

You will find answers to the following questions:

What is the actual price of Russian oil?

• The report provides dynamics of sale prices in Russian ports (Urals FOB) as well as the cost to end buyers, primarily in India and China (DAP indices)
• There is analysis of changes in discounts on Russian crude grades versus Dated Brent and in freight costs

How do Russian companies bypass sanctions?

• The report analyses the operation of the so-called “shadow fleet” involved in carrying Russian oil
• We also evaluate the methods used by Western countries to fight the “shadow fleet” and circumvention of sanctions

Where does Russian oil sell?

• NESF has created a model of Russian oil exports through main sales channels, including seaborne and supplies via the Transneft pipeline system, and has identified the sales structure by crude grade
• This lets one understand to what countries and in what quantities Russian oil companies sell one crude grade or another

Where do Russian petroleum products sell?

• Our analysis presents changes both in terms of volume and in terms of the sales geography for diesel, naphtha, fuel oil, and gasoline (before a ban on its exports was imposed)
• One can make inferences about the operation of centres for blending and reselling Russian petroleum products

Contents of the report: