Results of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to China

Energy results of President Medvedev's visit to China are quite significant. In particular, the sides signed a contract on oil supplies to China through the Skovorodino-Daqing oil pipeline launched by the heads of state. Yet, it is necessary to consider that main decisions on oil exports to the PRC had been actually made earlier. The ESPO pipeline is already operating and Russian oil deliveries to China will only be growing. The question is about the volume of supplies and their resource base - the Chinese do not mind increasing imports from Russia (including from Western Siberia) at quite beneficial prices for them. Meanwhile, many observers had expected Medvedev's visit to produce more serious decisions on the gas issue, in particular a compromise on prices, but this did not happen. It is obviously too early to say about agreeing "main commercial parameters" as reported by many officials and the mass media, without agreeing prices.

Actually the issue of prices of Russian hydrocarbons for China has not been a purely commercial matter for a long time. On the contrary it is gaining more and more political and strategic importance causing a kind of split between Russian elite clans that make key decisions. There is no concordance in the expert and academic communities either; they are debating about an optimal foreign economic and foreign political choice for Russia.

By Stanistav Mitrakhovich, NESF leading expert