NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (49) 685

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (49) 685

November 26 – December 2, 2007

Main political trends of the week

The main event of the last week was obviously the parliament election, which should determine the nature of the presidential race. Preliminary results showed that the Kremlin had achieved the desired goals. Voters turnout exceeded the previous State Duma election, which helped United Russia and in part LDPR thank to Far Eastern regions to get a better result. Exit polls show that apart from the favorites – UR and KPRF – LDPR and A Just Russia are also getting into the parliament. Most likely, after official results are drawn, UR will wind up with constitutional majority – 2/3 seats.

Once the election is over Vladimir Putin will finally pick a way to keep influence on Russian politics. Currently, there are two main possibilities. First, “third term” – he will remain in the president chair using loopholes in the law. Second, “national leader” – he use a handpicked successor and return later to presidency. So far, the president seems to be inclining toward the second scenario, however, a final decision will be made within the next three weeks.

Until Vladimir Putin makes a decision, Russian power clans continue infighting for political, administrative and financial assets. In particular, at the end of the last week Kommersant newspaper published an interview with the Head of FinanceGroup Oleg Shvartsman. It contained ideological platform for so-called “velvet re-privatization,” which was almost immediately interpreted by watchers as a possibility of uncontrolled redistribution of assets for the benefit of those close to the head of state. Shvartsman revealed that his patrons were the leader of the “security officials” clan Igor Sechin and the Head of the Russian Technology Corporation Sergei Chemezov. In theory, this interview may be considered an ideological platform for the activities of these two, however, it is more likely that the true aim of the article is to discredit them in the eyes of the president.

This pinch on Sergei Chemezov was a result of his recent strengthening. Last week, the establishment of the Russian Technology Corporation entered final stage – Chemezov has been lobbying for this project since 2005. The opening of the corporation led to an alliance between Chemezov and PM Viktor Zubkov – Zubkov’s son-in-law, Defense Minister Anatoly Serdyukov was appointed head of the state corporation’s board of directors, while earlier it had been expected that this post would be claimed by industry-controlling First Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov.

Major events Nov 26, 2007 - Dec 2, 2007

Event	To whose benefit	To whose disadvantage	What to expect
5th State Duma elections take place.	UR, LDPR	SPS, Yabloko	United Russia will manage to obtain constitutional majority in the Duma
Vladimir Putin appears in a televised address to the nation.	UR		Effect of the address will be neutral because the president simply reiterated his support for United Russia
Anatoly Serdyukov appointed head of the directors’ board of the Russian Technology Corporation	Viktor Zubkov, Anatoly Serdyukov	Sergei Ivanov	Power clans will interpret this as weakening of Sergei Ivanov’s foothold
Kommersant newspaper published an interview with the Head of FinanceGroup Oleg Shvartsman		“security officials” clan in the presidential administration, Sergei Chemezov	The facts mentioned in the interview may annoy the president
Large amount of regional JR members quit the party	UR	JR	These facts will not affect JR’s election results
Vladimir Putin appeared at the Science Council conference	Mikhail Kovalchuk		President’s promise to invest 600 billion rubles in scientific research will boost his popularity and the popularity of UR among science-affiliated voters
Vladimir Putin said it was necessary to “fortify” Industry and Energy Ministry	Viktor Khristenko	Anatoly Chubais	Rosenergo may lose authority for the benefit of the ministry
Start of the presidential campaign			The format of the campaign will be cleared within three weeks after the parliament election
The second round of Public Chamber elections is held.	Kovalchuk brothers		The third stage of Public Chamber appointment, which is scheduled for late December, will be very similar to the first two
Herman Gref appointed head of Sberbank	Herman Gref	“security officials” clan in the presidential administration	Gref may toughen financial policy of the bank in relation to Rosneft
Central Elections Commission included Nashi into the list of exit poll organizers	“Political wing” of the presidential administration		UR’s exit poll results will be slightly overstated
God Nisanov taken down from LDPR’s election ticket		LDPR	Party will have less money for campaign needs but it will not affect its results too seriously