Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (4) 692

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (4) 692

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (4) 692

January 14 - 20, 2008

Main political trends of the week

Last week mass media resumed discussion of reforms, however, this term was often substituted by a less “annoying” for the people “modernization.” Presidential successor Dmitry Medvedev said the pension system had to be upgraded. Currently, there are three main weak spots in the Russian social area – pension system, healthcare and housing. Reformation of all three may cost the people a great deal. It is possible that in order to minimize the costs the Kremlin will once again make businesses loosen their purse-strings.

The competition for State Duma posts is over. As expected, after the appointment of the heads of committees, Duma players began to fight for first deputy posts that provide almost equal lobby opportunities. This process revealed that many candidates that failed to become committee heads took revenge becoming first deputy heads. In the mean time, lobby power of specific committees changed significantly.

Despite relatively peaceful division of the State Duma, its factions continued competing. In particular, A Just Russia suggested that all “sane” leftist forces must and inevitably will unite under JR’s auspices. Although this is a Sergei Mironov’s initiative it is possible that this time it is not just another attention-seeking statement but rather announcement of a “max plan.” It is quite possible that this project will be put on rails this year and authorities will need to deal with protests. In the mean time Kremlin-disloyal rightist opposition is decomposing. The refusal of famous persons – Lyudmila Alekseyeva and Georgiy Satarov – to chair the National Civil Congress proved that disloyal opposition was in crisis, the first signs of which emerged back in May 2007.

Sergei Ivanov returned to headlines after a long hiatus – this time in relation to his direct duty (control of industry and military sector). His address to the Russians asking to cast a vote in the presidential election may be seen exclusively as an attempt to remind of himself and of the fact that he is not just a “technical” official but also a political player.

It could be possible to look at the government meeting on nanotechnologies in the context of Ivanov’s comeback, however, the nanotechnologies theme was used by mass media without any reference to Ivanov but rather to Viktor Zubkov. So, presumably the Kremlin’s security officials clan (or siloviki) is gradually trying to recover from the defeat in December an find new spots to counterattack. Continuation of the “Storchak’s case” supports this idea. Last week it was informed that the arrested deputy minister of finance had been replaced by a head of a Finance Ministry’s department Dmitry Pankin. De facto this means that Aleksey Kudrin admitted his tactical defeat in the fight for his deputy.

Major events Jan 14, 2008 - Jan 20, 2008

Event To whose benefit To whose disadvantage What to expect

Vladimir Putin met with Federation Council members

Dmitry Medvedev

 

The need to reform social segment will be emphasized in mass media

All State Duma posts have been distributed

UR

JR, KPRF, LDPR

After the presidential election Duma posts may be redistributed in UR's favor

Shuffle in The United Russia

Political wing of the presidential administration

 

The shuffle will improve control of the party

Appointment of Central Elections Commission Member Leonid Ivlev as controller of the most problematic for UR regions

Political wing of the presidential administration

 

If Medvedev’s result in these regions is better than that of UR on December 2, Ivlev may get a promotion in CEC or PA

It was informed that the former Vice Governor of Leningrad Oblast Vladimir Kirillov could be appointed as Rosprirodnadzor chief

Viktor Zubkov

Yuri Trutnev, Oleg Mitvol

If Kirillov is appointed, he and Mitvol will be in conflict

Minister of Natural Resources Yuri Trutnev refused to confirm Oleg Mitvol’s resignation

Oleg Mitvol

 

Mitvol will be able to use this as an instrument of infighting for influence in the watchdog

Gas explosions in several Russian regions

  Rostekhnadzor

Head of Rostekhnadzor Konstantin Pulikovsky may be named responsible for the accidents if they continue to happen

Head of Rostekhnadzor Konstantin Pulikovsky said it was necessary to resume licensing of filling stations

Konstantin Pulikovsky

Emergency Ministry

This initiative may be carried out only if motor petrol price jumps or the Far Eastern crisis worsens

A First Vice Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov urged Russians to vote actively in the presidential election

Sergei Ivanov

 

This statement will not be a start of a large-scale campaign to make Ivanov a powerhouse again

Government meeting on nanotechnologies in Russia

Viktor Zubkov

Sergei Ivanov

It is possible that in the nearest future development of nanotechnologies will no longer be associated exclusively with Ivanov

It was informed that the arrested Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak would be replaced by a head of a Finance Ministry’s department Dmitry Pankin

Kremlin’s siloviki

Aleksey Kudrin

Storchak’s arrest may be extended for several months

Andrei Bogdanov and Mikhail Kasyanov submitted signatures to CEC

Mikhail Kasyanov, Andrei Bogdanov

 

Most likely, Kasyanov will be denied registration

Economic Development and Trade Ministry received control of state oversea real estate property

Elvira Nabiullina

 

EDTM may get back a part of authority it lost not too long ago

Vladimir Putin backed the project of investigation reform proposed by the General Prosecutor’s Office

Yuri Chaika

Alexander Bastrykin, Kremlin’s siloviki

If the reform is carried out, GPO will return the main instruments of influence on investigation

United Regional Bank’s license recalled

 

Arkady Gaidamak, Kremlin’s siloviki

This is a technical procedure that will not lead to serious weakening of the siloviki’s positions

Lyudmila Alekseyeva and Georgiy Satarov refused to become co-chairpersons of the National Civil Congress

Lyudmila Alekseyeva, Georgiy Satarov

Garry Kasparov

Kasparov will not be able to find replacement for the two

Searches in the office of the head of the Moscow Eastern Customs

 

Andrei Belyaninov

This event may lead to a new wave of fight against corruption in the Federal Customs Service

Volume: 15 pages


If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
Bookmark and Share

Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

Rambler's Top100
About us | Products | Comments | Services | Books | Conferences | Our clients | Price list | Site map | Contacts
Consulting services, political risks assessment on the Fuel & Energy Industry, concern of pilitical and economic Elite within the Oil-and-Gas sector.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007

LiveInternet