NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (6) 694

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (6) 694

January 28 - February 3, 2008

Main political trends of the week

Last week saw two seemingly opposite tendencies: attempt to consolidate various voters’ groups around Dmitry Medvedev and escalating infighting for assets (both material and administrative).

The presidential campaign has finally become virtual and moved entirely into mass media domain with Dmitry Medvedev clearly dominating (apart from the internet and partly press). The successor has put off showdown of the full version of his program until February and continued the tactic of “pinpoint attacks” appealing to the interests of various target groups. It is noteworthy that election campaigns of other presidential candidates, including Gennady Zyuganov, has also moved into mass media despite that KPRF has strong agitprop network. Most likely, the communists have become satisfied and complacent, especially after VCIOM poll showed Zyuganov had strong chances to win the second place in the race for president.

Such political reconciliation is contrast with the escalation of infighting in the government that just as last fall again looks like a “war of all against all.” Last week came reports of increasing efforts of Russian Technology Corporation Head Sergei Chemezov. He expressed interest in FGUP NTC Atlas and Tekhnopromexport, control of which is also interesting for Defense Minister (via Federal Tax Service) and Russian Federal Atomic Energy Agency Head Sergei Kiriyenko respectively. In the first case Chemezov is trying to set off the concession to the Serdyukov-Zubkov tandem (under whose pressure he had to agree to Serdyukov’s appointment as the head of Russian Technology Corporation’s board of directors). Most likely, the president’s cronies will continue claiming control of various economic spheres.

Another conflict line has been revealed in several security and law enforcement services. General Prosecutor Yuri Chaika and Head of the Investigation Committee Alexander Bastrykin are again in standoff. Speaking at the national congress of investigation services the latter criticized Chaika’s initiatives to change the order of several criminal proceedings. Besides, IC has prepared initiatives that propose elimination of GPO’s watch over IC. The same kind of infighting is happening inside the Ministry of Justice. Minister Vladimir Ustinov and his formal subordinate Head of the Federal Bailiff Service Nikolai Vinnichenko expanded their own authority through changes to the law. But what’s happening is not fortification of the vertical of power in the Ministry of Justice because the both officials belong to rival power clans.

Last week rumors emerged of soon government dissolution, which few of senior officials would survive. Most likely, the rumors were sparked by Viktor Zubkov’s nomination as a candidate for Gazprom’s board of directors. In this case the rumors may be considered ill-founded.

Major events Jan 28, 2008 - Feb 03, 2008

Event	To whose benefit	To whose disadvantage	What to expect
Dmitry Medvedev speaks at the extraordinary congress of Jurists Association of Russia	Dmitry Medvedev		Another part of Medvedev’s presidential program (for wider auditorium) will be shown down in the second decade of February
Dmitry Medvedev speaks at the National Forum of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs	Dmitry Medvedev		The successor will continue positioning himself as adherent to private initiative and moderate opponent to state capitalism
Dmitry Medvedev refuses to take part in televised presidential debates	Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Zhirinovsky	Gennady Zyuganov	Vladimir Zhirinovsky may turn out to be the most flamboyant candidate in the debates, which will increase his popularity among voters
Central Elections Commission rejects Mikhail Kasyanov’s candidacy	Mikhail Kasyanov	Garry Kasparov	Kasyanov will try to “capitalize” on his “martyr” image
Agreement freezing key food prices is extended	Aleksei Gordeyev		“Success” in this direction will be used by Gordeyev as an argument to stay in the government after May 2008
FGUP NTC Atlas is included into the list of assets, of which Russian Technology Corporation will be composed	Sergei Chemezov	Anatoly Serdyukov, Viktor Zubkov	Chemezov may increase efforts in the spheres that Serdyukov wants to keep for himself
Speaking at the National Congress of Investigating Agencies IC Head Bastrykin proposes improvements to line services and regulation	Alexander Bastrykin	Yuri Chaika	The tug of war will continue until the government is dissolved
Central Elections Commission bans several KPRF’s periodicals		Gennady Zyuganov	Most likely, CEC will have to make concessions to KPRF and lift the ban at least for several periodicals
Yabloko administration cancels plans to organize the first stage of party congress in February	Grigory Yavlinski	Mikhail Amosov, Ilya Yashin	The party’s administration may “purge” Yabloko of disloyal players in the nearest several months
Discussion of the bill regulating internet services	Sergei Mironov		The bill will be rejected or its incidence will be significantly changed
During Security Council meeting Dmitry Medvedev says that environmental watchdogs must stop duplicate work	Vladimir Kirillov, Oleg Mitvol	Konstantin Pulikovsky	In the nearest time we expect establishment of a unified environmental watchdog on the basis of Rosprirodnadzor and Rostekhnadzor
It is reported that Economic Development and Trade Ministry may be deprived of foreign trade regulating function	Viktor Zubkov	Elvira Nabiullina	Nabiullina will not resist to such changes
Reshuffle in the State Radio Frequency Commission	Boris Boyarskov	Leonid Reiman	The standoff between the two officials may spill into the commission
Viktor Zubkov nominated for Gazprom director	Viktor Zubkov		It is quite possible that Zubkov’s election will be a sinecure or compensation for prime minister post
Rosenergo Head Dmitry Akhanov says that his agency plans to give instructions to state representatives in the boards of directors in energy companies	Anatoly Chubais, Dmitry Akhanov		If this initiative is successful, Rosenergo will seriously expand its authority and get many RAO UES’s functions after the energy monopolist’s liquidation