NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (13) 701

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (13) 701

March 17 - 23, 2008

Uncertainty leads to the standoff of the elite

Almost two months long delay of reshuffle in the government and the presidential administration has had significant influence on government players, who once again started a large-scale “war of all against all.” This is especially noticeable in the Cabinet of Ministers, in which Aleksey Gordeyev is attacking the Economic Development Ministry and the Federal Supervision Agency for Customer Protection and Human Welfare (or Rospotrebnadzor); Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina has increased her efforts substantially; Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin has been attacked on all sides. Obviously, there is no clear understanding currently of the state’s development strategy for the next four years, therefore we are witnessing competition of various country development plans and brain trusts.

Escalation of competition at the top government level has led to new high-profile arrests. Some news outlets suggest that the arrest of Zaslavsky brothers is an attempt to cross up FSB Chief Nikolai Patrushev. However, it is also possible that these arrests were sanctioned at the very top of the government and are aimed at narrowing down the opportunities of the pro-western part of the elite that is ready to proceed with “thaw.” Another possible explanation is escalation of the turf war between security high brass for control of the Federal Investigation Service, the rumor of which again emerged last week.

At the same time, what we are seeing is not a return to “screw tightening” as we saw happening in October-November last year. The court ruling in favor of the European University in St. Petersburg and the release of Yabloko St. Petersburg leader Maksim Reznik prove that there is no single state strategy in this area.

Broiling competition affected not only the “law enforcement” segment of security services. It is rumored again that the Chief of the General Headquarters Yuri Baluyevsky may be fired, previously this rumor circulated in mass media at the beginning of this year. Most likely, this is an echo of the struggle inside the Ministry of Defense, where the generals become angry over Anatoly Serdyukov’s staff policy and the sale of the most valuable ministry’s assets.

The infighting is escalating in the public domain too. In particular, The United Russia continues attempts to find a spot for itself in the new power configuration. We are also witnessing attempts of the Public Chamber to take revenge from the State Duma for the defeat two years ago, when the Chamber was refused the right to influence on the law-making process. In the mean time, this service may be pressed in its traditional realm by the various public councils that are being created inside government services and by the project of a Public Council on Television announced by the Federation Council Head Sergei Mironov.

Major events March 17 - March 23, 2008

Event	To whose benefit	To whose disadvantage	What to expect
Dmitry Medvedev meets with the Public Chamber heads	Dmitry Medvedev		The successor will keep distance between him and the PC
Dmitry Medvedev speaks at the congress celebrating 85 years of the Supreme Court in Russia	Dmitry Medvedev		Dmitry Medvedev will attempt to revise the judicial reform of Dmitry Kozak
Alexander and Ilya Zaslavsky arrested			It is quite possible that these events will narrow down opportunities for pro-western part of the elite
Release of the Yabloko St. Petersburg Chief Maksim Reznik and resumption of the European University’s work		Grigory Yavlinsky	Possibly, Reznik will become a strong competition for Yavlinsky in the race for the party leader position
Boris Gryzlov announces the agenda of the UR’s congress in April	UR		During the congress, The United Russia will propose methods of the Plan 2020 implementation
The government of Russia meets to discuss the state of affairs in the agriculture segment	Elvira Nabiullina, Aleksey Kudrin, Viktor Zubkov	Aleksey Gordeyev	The ‘administrative suppression of prices’ measures will be wound down
Minister of Agriculture Gordeyev proposes to redistribute authority in the new government and give the Ministry of Agriculture control of foodstuff customs and food quality inspection	Aleksey Gordeyev	Elvira Nabiullina, Gennady Onischenko	This proposal will not be carried out
First Vice Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov says Russian Technology Corporation should not include defense industry parent companies	Sergei Ivanov	Sergei Chemezov	It is quite possible that Ivanov’s lobby resource will not be enough to block the insertion of these assets into the state corporation
Government authorizes the program of fundamental research by the national academies of sciences for 2008-2012	Yuri Osipov, Rossiya Bank controllers		Government control of the RAS’s spending will not be protested by the academics
Establishment of an anti-corruption commission in the State Duma	UR		This service will be a pure imitation and will not play a serious role in the combat against corruption
The start of the scandal around embezzlement in the Pension Fund	Aleksey Anichin, Evgeny Shkolov	Gennady Batanov	It is possible that this scandal will have positive consequences for the careers of Anichin and Shkolov
The start of the spinning of the case against Kasyanov on signatures falsification charges		Mikhail Kasyanov	It is possible that legal proceedings will be instituted against some secondary characters involved in the scandal
It is rumored that General HQ Chief Yuri Baluyevsky will be fired	Anatoly Serdyukov, Alexander Burutin	Yuri Baluyevsky	Most likely, this tidbit is a psychological attack on Baluyevsky to force him to resign
State Duma passes the Centers of Former Presidents’ Historical Heritage bill	Vladimir Putin, Sergei Mironov		This center will not be a backup job for Vladimir Putin