Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (16) 704

April 7 - 13, 2008

Post-putin system of checks and balances shaping

The question of the ‘transit’ of power is still considered to be fundamental for the domestic elite as the configuration of future alliances and conflicts between influence groups will depend on the answer to this question. Last week initial outlines of the post-Putin system of checks and balances, which the outgoing president is forming if not to retain his dominant position in the Russian politics than to at least ensure parity with Dmitry Medvedev, started coming into sight. Its elements will include government supervision over regional elites (through the Ministry of Regional Development) and also Vladimir Putin’s personal control over the federal Establishment though his personal ‘staff pool’ and the United Russia party. Dmitry Medvedev and his team prefer to stay in the shadow so far.

However, such ‘shadow’ status of the successor’s team does not completely rule out the possibility of some game by its individual members aimed at strengthening their personal positions on the threshold of key struggle for power. In particular, last week the Supreme Arbitration Court (headed by Dmitry Medvedev’s protégé Anton Ivanov) published its ruling regulating application of Article 169 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation. Although the ruling is of regulative character, there is quite a lot at stake: this is the article that has been used by tax authorities lately to redistribute assets. The adoption of this ruling provides a chance to partially revise these controversies. This is not the first step of the Supreme Arbitration Court aimed at weakening the position of tax authorities: its decision on the case of Priobye Bank may question the recovery of double penalties from YUKOS. Thus, strengthening of positions of the judicial brunch, the necessity of which was pointed out by Dmitry Medvedev and this is what he may rely on at the initial stage of his presidency, has entered into the phase of practical implementation.

Upcoming changes in the power configuration are forcing players, who are not confident in retaining their positions in the future, to become more active to get hold of as many assets as possible in the remaining time. Rostekhnologii head Sergey Chemezov whose ambitions stretch far beyond the defense sector is the leader in terms of the scope and efforts he invests to achieve this goal. Such range of his activities resulted in the broadening of the ‘anti-Chemezov’ front with Minister of Economic Development and Trade Elvira Nabiullina having joined it last week. This coalition has been successful from time to time in limiting the opponent’s initiatives. Other state corporations have been much less active, except the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnology (RCNT) that is confidently approaching to establishing control over the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS).

Those players who do not have possibilities to increase the volume of economic assets under their control make attempts of administrative expansion that are more and more getting virtualized. This is especially vivid taking the example of the security-related bloc, whose representatives are making more and more high profile statements and less and less real steps fearing this can negatively affect their outlooks after May 7.

Major events April 7 - April 13, 2008

Volume: 18 pages