NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (21) 709

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (21) 709

May 12-18, 2008

Main political trends of the week

Tendencies that had been evident only due to indirect signs proved to be true last week. The reshuffle in the government and presidential administration showed that Vladimir Putin retained his critical influence on Russia’s domestic policies. At the same time hopes of some groups counting on the weakening of positions of ‘radical siloviki’ (security related bloc members) did not come true; their leader Igor Sechin not only formally confirmed his previous powers but also obtained a new direction for their expansion – the manufacturing industry. Only two members of Dmitry Medvedev’s personal staff pool received key positions; they are justice minister Alexander Konovalov and Konstantin Chuichenko (the presidential control directorate).

Structural changes in the executive branch of power can be characterized on the whole as ‘varied continuity’. The government layout did not change radically, however some earlier tendencies went on. In particular, principles of the 2004 administrative reforms that Vladimir Putin acknowledged to be unsuccessful were rejected again. The executive vertical was partially reestablished: a number of agencies and services were abolished and their functions were transferred to ministries. State committees were transformed into agencies that are currently more strictly subordinate to ministries.

However, Dmitry Medvedev and his supporters do not want to recognize the current power layout and are preparing ground for probable future expansion. In particular, the successor proceeded with the policy of gaining support of target groups unsatisfied with the current situation in the country. So far the main direction has been medium-sized and small businesses that are expecting implementation of some pre-election promises from the head of state. Dmitry Medvedev’s supporters in the judicial branch of power are speeding up attempts to raise its status and independence, while a number of Public Chamber members are trying to establish alternative contacts to existing ways of communication with representatives of security related bodies.

The current situation and Vladimir Putin’s efforts aimed at intertwining interests of elite groups promote changes in the configuration of unions of different groups of influence. In particular, the so-called ‘bloc of the discontented’ has practically broken up, whose representatives counted on Dmitry Medvedev to get their revenge for previous defeats or to strengthen their positions. As a result, most influential bloc members have preferred either to ally with Putin’s team members or to emphasize their loyalty to the prime minister.

Major events May 12 - May 18, 2008

Event	Winning side	Defeated side	Development Outlooks
Dmitry Medvedev approves new structure and appointments in the new government	Vladimir Putin, Igor Sechin, Alexey Kudrin, Alexander Bortnikov, Viktor Zubkov, Alexey Gordeyev	Sergey Ivanov, Alexander Sokolov, Leonid Reiman, Andrey Krainy, Nikolay Patrushev, Vladimir Ustinov	‘Fine tuning’ of the Russian governmentwill continue for several months and result in new conflict lines
Dmitry Medvedev approves new staff of the presidential administration	Vladimir Putin, Sergey Naryshkin, Konstantin Chuichenko, Oleg Markov	Viktor Ivanov	New reshuffle on the upper level of the presidential administration should not be expected before the end of the year
Vladimir Putin declares intention to decrease tax burden on the oil sector	‘Radical’ security related bloc members		Conflict between the ‘party of oil’ and the ‘party of gas’ will sharpen
Igor Sechin is appointed Chairman of the Board of Directors of the United Shipbuilding Corporation (USC)	Igor Sechin		The process of the USC creation will be accelerated
Viktor Ivanov is appointed to head the Federal Drug Control Service	Viktor Ivanov	Viktor Cherkesov	Cherkesov is trying to speed up the process of creating the Federal Arms Supplies Agency
Media reports on the intention of Boris Fedorov’s UFG Private Equity to sell 49% in News Media Publishing House before the end of the year		Viktor Cherkesov	Cherkesov’s teammates are expected to decrease their media activity
Yelena Valyavina, deputy chair of the Supreme Arbitration Court, says there were attempts of pressure on her by the presidential administration	Dmitry Medvedev, Anton Ivanov		Dmitry Medvedev supporters will continue efforts aimed at raising the role of judicial corporation
Alexandra Ochirova, head of the Public Chamber commission for social and demographic policies, declares intention to create a federal body for veterans affairs		‘Radical’ security related bloc members	Another attempt of the Public Chamber to establish contacts with security related structures will be blocked
Federal Service for the Inspection of Natural Resources Usesays it has claims to Rosneft regarding development of Veninsky fields of the Sakhalin-3 project		Rosneft	License will not be revoked
Vladimir Zhirinovsky declares necessity to transfer to the parliamentary republic	Vladimir Putin	Dmitry Medvedev	Probing this issue will continue