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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (27) 715

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (27) 715

June 23 - June 29, 2008

Main political trends of the week

Last week went by amid sharp rise in non-political patriotism following the Russian national football team reaching the Euro 2008 semifinals. In addition, this had another important consequence – elites’ attention to potential disagreements inside the tandem considerably decreased. However, this did not completely eliminate attempts to provoke a conflict between the two top politicians, for example by interpreting the results of sociological surveys. Simultaneously there was another surge in anti-corruption rhetoric attributed to the end of the intermediate stage of drafting a corresponding plan. Judging by the analysis of the proposals, they are of general character and copy earlier proposals on the whole.

Issues regarding political parties again became topical after a long break. In particular, there were attempts to change legislation on parties that were aimed at strengthening the current few-party system. At the same time political outsiders, e.g. Yabloko, are trying to imitate modernization to survive politically. It should be mentioned that not only the party of power and outsiders but also average parliamentary parties (communist party and Just Russia) are concerned with modernization.

Reshuffle in the executive branch and major state corporations was again aimed at maintaining balance between different elite groups. Replacement of Andrey Rappoport with Sergey Ivanov (deputy PM’s namesake) may be considered as the beginning of exchange of administrative assets between Anatoly Chubais and Bank Rossiya Group; as a result the role of the first official in the Russian Corporation of Nanotechnology will increase substantially, while the other’s will weaken.

Consolidation of power and exchange of administrative assets were promoted by the election of Viktor Zubkov board chairperson of Gazprom, which had been faraway from the sphere of interests of security-related elite groups. Finally, Nikolay Aulov, former head of the interior ministry’s main department for the Central Federal District, was appointed deputy chief of the federal drug control service headed by Viktor Ivanov. This functionary is believed to be a protégé of the group of the so-called Orthodox chekists (security officers). Until recently they maintained neutrality and were employed in special operations on mopping up Petersburg criminal leaders. According to other sources, Aulov is a protégé of Alexander Bastrykin, head of the Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office.

Major events June 23 - June 29, 2008

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks
Dmitry Medvedev’s interview with Reuters Dmitry Medvedev  

President will keep on reiterating earlier voiced theses

Creation of directorate for State Council activities in the presidential administration

Alexander Abramov  

This is a technical decision and it will not result in redistribution of influence spheres in the administration

Viktor Zubkov is elected Gazprom board of directors chairperson

Viktor Zubkov, Anatoly Serdyukov Alexey Miller

Vladimir Putin will continue strategy of intertwining interests of different elite groups

Vladimir Blank is appointed deputy minister of regional development

Vladimir Kogan, Dmitry Kozak, Viktor Cherkesov

 

Blank will keep on lobbying Kogan’s interests in the ministry especially concerning dam construction in St. Petersburg

Alexander Velichko is appointed deputy justice minister

Alexander Konovalov  

Konovalov’s personal personnel pool members will continue coming to the ministry

Proposal to appoint Viktor Yevtukhov as Russia’s representative to the European Court of Human Rights

Alexander Konovalov Vladimir Ustinov Cleansing of the justice ministry from Ustinov’s men will accelerate

Sergey Ivanov is appointed deputy head of the state border commission

Sergey Ivanov  

If Ivanov successfully implements his authority, he may count on broadening of his administrative influence

Vladislav Putilin is appointed first deputy head of the military and industrial commission

Sergey Ivanov, Vladislav Putilin  

Vladimir Putin will continue maintaining balance between influence groups

Presidential administration head Sergey Naryshkin submits anti-graft plan

   

This plan will be unfulfilled following the fate of previous similar documents

Investigation Committee of the Prosecutor General’s Office submits a draft concept of countering corruption to a working group of the presidential anti-graft council

Alexander Bastrykin  

This draft is of purely declarative character and it will not be taken into account when working out anti-corruption measures

Yabloko party congress; Sergey Mitrokhin is elected its chairperson

Grigory Yavlinsky, Sergey Mitrokhin Maxim Reznik

Yavlinsky will retain considerable influence in the party

Plenum of the central committee of the communist party

Gennady Zyuganov  

Communist party’s attempts to take control over protest activities will be of imitational character and will not succeed

Initiative of some parliamentary factions to increase the state’s financial assistance to parties overcoming a 3% threshold

United Russia, Just Russia, Liberal Democratic Party (LDPR)

 

If this initiative is approved, it will promote strengthening of a few party system in Russia

Mop up in Just Russia regional offices Sergey Mironov

Former functionaries of Rodina party and Party of Pensioners

Positions of protégés of Sergey Mironov and Nikolay Levichev in regional offices will strengthen

Anatoly Chubais’ interview with the Financial Times

Anatoly Chubais  

Chubais will keep on developing the thesis that there is liberalization going on in Russia

Moscow Basmanny Court rules in favor of deputy prosecutor general Alexander Buksman’s wife

Yury Chaika, Alexander Buksman Alexander Bastrykin

This decision will be appealed against in a higher instance

Volume: 15 pages


If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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