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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (36) 724
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (36) 724
August 25-31, 2008
Main tendencies of political week
In late August just like during the whole month the vector of domestic policies was to a great extent defined by the foreign political situation. The recognition of independence of the Transcaucasian republics and the sharp reaction of the West will have serious consequences for the domestic political layout. If pressure from abroad intensifies, Russian elites may well choose the variant of sovereign patriotic modernization with elements of autarchy. It seems European countries have realized this, which explains their hardly visible yet but softened position. The crisis in Transcaucasia had another positive consequence for the Russian elites: all information about their property abroad may be attributed to intrigues by western secret services. Moreover, the activity of Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin in mass media once again demonstrated coordination of actions of the duumvirate.
In the light of the recent events in Transcaucasia some interesting changes in public opinion took place. Firstly, as it had been expected, a ‘quick victorious war’ increased the level of support to authorities, both Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin. Secondly, it became clear that attempts of liberal circles to associate actions of contemporary Russia in Georgia with the USSR actions in Czechoslovakia in 1968, failed.
Finally, the conflict in Transcaucasia diverted public attention from not very successful performance of Team Russia at the Beijing Olympics and enabled the authorities to replace non-political patriotism with political, which not only retained but also increased the reserve of legitimacy of the current state authorities.
Actual failure of Russia’s Olympic team led to the sharpening of a conflict between sports functionaries, who are trying to make each other guilty. Vyacheslav Fetisov, head of the Federal Agency for Physical Culture and Sports (Rossport), has the most vulnerable position, especially considering the upcoming fine-turning of the government this autumn. This may be the reason for his interview, in which he tried to accuse Russian Olympic Committee head Leonid Tyagachev and Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko of the failure.
Major events August 25 - August 31, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recognition of independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia | Dmitry Medvedev, Vladimir Putin |
| Ratings of president and prime minister will rise |
| Vladimir Putin’s interviews with CNN and ARD | Vladimir Putin |
| Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev will keep on developing similar theses in mass media |
| Dmitry Medvedev’s decree on establishing HR commission |
|
| Members of Vladimir Putin’s team will be mainly included in the president’s HR reserve |
| Official charges against Dmitry Dovgy, former head of the main investigation department of the Investigation Committee | Alexander Bastrykin | Yury Chaika | It is quite possible that Yury Chaika will lose his post this autumn |
| Alexander Romanchenko, department head of the Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency, is interrogated by FSB |
|
| This fact is not an element of administrative pressure on the agency’s leaders and will not result in serious consequences |
| Sergey Mayev, head of the Federal Service for Defense Contracts, declares about revealing abuse of funds totaling more than 22bn rubles | Sergey Ivanov, Viktor Cherkesov | Anatoly Serdyukov | It is quite possible that Ivanov-Cherkesov tandem will try to turn Federal Agency for Procurement of Military and Special Equipment into a really functioning entity |
| Igor Sechin is appointed head of the government commission for fuel and energy sector | Igor Sechin | Gazprom | This appointment will not cardinally change administrative layout of forces in the Cabinet |
| Anton Ustinov is appointed secretary of the government commission for fuel and energy sector | Vladimir Ustinov, Igor Sechin |
| The core of radical siloviki will remain solid |
| Rumors about possible appointment of Anatoly Chubais to RCNT |
|
| Chubais’s allies are likely to be the source of such rumors that have little to do with reality |
| Oleg Sazonov is appointed head of the department of state regulation of domestic trade of the ministry of industry and trade | Viktor Khristenko | Alexey Gordeyev | Bill on trade will be cardinally revised |
| Vyacheslav Fetisov’s interview with Sport Express newspaper | Vyacheslav Fetisov | Leonid Tyagachev, Vitaly Mutko | Fetisov will continue publicly confront opponents |
| FC Zenit wins UEFA Super Cup | Vitaly Mutko
| Vyacheslav Fetisov | Fetisov’s chances to retain his post this autumn will decrease substantially |
Volume: 15 pages
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007