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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (51) 739

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (51) 739

December 8 - 14, 2008

Main tendencies of political week

There was no some special news on the country’s political field last week, at least as far as its public part is concerned. The topic of crisis became more actively discussed on the official level, though previously state authorities had tried to avoid it (at least in relation to Russia). Dmitry Medvedev’s speech at a forum devoted to Day of Constitution practically did not contain any unexpected things. According to him, fundamental modernization of the Constitution is undesirable in the next few decades, since the current variant is expedient enough to reflect the fundamental basis of the system. However, it does not mean there will be no changes at all – the president made it clear that correction of secondary provisions of the document (the provisions concerning the terms in office of authorities seem to be such) could be implemented depending on changes in the current situation.

The past week confirmed the tendency of sharpening of staff struggle inside the government stirred up by functionaries’ impression that large-scale reshuffle had been postponed. Vladimir Putin kept on distancing himself from operative struggle against the crisis appointing authorized persons. First deputy PM Igor Shuvalov is now head of the anti-crisis commission in the executive branch and he may enter competition with Igor Sechin. At lower echelons struggle also continued. In particular, Kovalchuk brothers’ protégé Boris Boyarskov lost his post of head of the federal service for communications supervision. Agriculture minister Alexey Gordeyev, whose positions had weakened over the previous few months, successfully attempted to play back.

The situation in the defense ministry is still complicated; its leaders are firmly dedicated to speeding up implementation of unpopular reforms. In particular, information appeared about soon transfer of the Navy headquarters from Moscow to St. Petersburg, although previously the ministry’s high-ranking officials declared that such a decision had not been made. Wishing to decrease discontent, military officials promised substantial material welfare to officers after the reforms are implemented, at least in three years. In particular, according to some statements, junior officers will get about 70,000 rubles per month, while colonels and generals about 120,000 to 150,000 rubles. Simultaneously with the reforms inside the ministry, its leaders are trying to acquire control over internal and external financial flows, e.g. of the ROSTO association.

Major events December 8 - December 14, 2008

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev submits bill on altering procedure of forming the Federation Council

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Mironov

Sergey Mironov may lose post of FC head in the one to two year perspective

Dmitry Medvedev addresses a conference devoted to 15th anniversary of adopting Russia’s Constitution

Dmitry Medvedev

 

In the near future other provisions of the Constitution will not change

Nikolay Vinnichenko is appointed presidential envoy to Urals Federal District

Radical siloviki

Nikolay Vinnichenko

Another but less ambitions protégé of Dmitry Medvedev will be appointed head of the federal bailiff service

Nikita Belykh is nominated to governor of Kirov Region

 

Nikita Belykh, liberal opposition

Belykh will finally discredit himself on governor post

Alexey Kudrin is appointed deputy head of the presidential council for financial markets

Dmitry Medvedev, Alexey Kudrin

 

Pressure on Kudrin by his opponents will somewhat weaken

Sergey Sitnikov is appointed head of the federal service for communications and IT supervision

 

Bank Rossiya Group, Boris Boyarskov

Sergey Sitnikov will start pursuing more equidistant policies

Dmitry Medvedev approves of the idea to create the fund for direct support of enterprises

 

Igor Sechin

If such a fund is created, state assistance allocated through VEB will decrease substantially

1st deputy PM Igor Shuvalov says merger of the federal registration service and the federal agencies for registering real estate and of geodesy and cartography will start on January 1

Elvira Nabiullina, Igor Manylov, Pavel Krasheninnikov

Yury Petrov

The new entity will stay within the economic development ministry

Regulations of the Central Election Commission are amended to enable CEC chair to independently approve the staff list, hire, dismiss and transfer workers

Vladimir Churov

 

Vladimir Churov may leave his post of CEC chair in the medium-term perspective

Viktor Zavarzin, head of the State Duma defense committee, says that salaries of officers would grow substantially after 2011

 

 

Defense ministry leadership and functionaries loyal to them will keep promising material welfare to officers, in case they do not resist reforms

Volume: 15 pages

 


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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