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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (59) 747
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (59) 747
February 02 - 08, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
The head of state’s strategic course aimed at broadening the base of his support among the population and the elite became more vivid last week. Coincidences that seemed accidental are starting to acquire a clear and consistent character. In particular, Dmitry Medvedev did not attend the congress of the Russian Association of Lawyers, despite his image of patron of the judicial corporation; however, this did not hinder election of his protégé, Pavel Krasheninnikov, co-chairperson of the association. At the same time the president made an attractive proposal to the interior ministry at a meeting of the MVD board. He declared about the necessity of the ministry’s control over the spending of state resources allocated to fight the crisis. It is interesting that a week earlier similar things were told to FSB. In his video blog the head of state declared initiatives aimed at supporting students – one of the most dynamic and mobile social groups.
There was noticeable expansion of first deputy PM Igor Shuvalov last week, who continued publicly asserting himself as the main anti-crisis manager. In particular, he declared that the list of enterprises to be rendered state assistance would be considerably enlarged and the resources would be allocated to them directly, not through VEB. This means tactical defeat of deputy PM Igor Sechin who has in fact supervised distribution of money through this bank since last autumn. Yet, government liberals headed by Shuvalov may lose on the strategic side: despite temporary slackening of crisis developments, fundamental factors point to its upcoming second round, after which members of the liberal camp in the government may become scapegoats.
It should be also noted that Igor Sechin’s allies, first of all Sergey Chemezov, continue developing their business offensive. It is often done in prejudice of representatives of old elite groups, e.g. the Family group. Last week information was posted about problems of Oleg Deripaska and Aeroflot (possible cancellation of royalties) headed by Valery Okulov, Boris Yeltsin’s son-in-law. Business groups supporting Vladimir Putin and Igor Sechin were named as possible beneficiaries.
Major events February 02, 2009 - February 08, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev attends a meeting of the enlarged board of MVD | Dmitry Medvedev, Rashid Nurgaliyev |
| President will keep making overtures to power agencies |
| Dmitry Medvedev submits bill on cutting the minimal quantity of party members to State Duma | Dmitry Medvedev |
| This bill practically won’t change the layout of forces on the party field, but it will enable the president to maintain his liberal image |
| Pavel Krasheninnikov is elected co-chair of the Russian Association of Lawyers | Pavel Krasheninnikov |
| Delayed projects of the association may be revived |
| First deputy PM Igor Shuvalov declares about suspension of refinancing of foreign credits of enterprises through Central Bank | Igor Shuvalov | Igor Sechin | Shuvalov will increase control over resources allocated for anti-crisis support to economy |
| Dmitry Medvedev voices measures aimed at supporting students | Dmitry Medvedev |
| This initiative will face serious counteraction in the academic circles |
| Vladimir Putin says pensions will be raised more than planned if inflation surpasses the 2009 target | Vladimir Putin |
| This forecast is likely to be implemented |
| Defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov says timeframes of military reforms will not be revised |
|
| Decisions on real timeframes of military reforms will depend on dynamics of the crisis |
| FAS head Igor Artemyev says the conflict around the bill on retail trade should be settled by Vladimir Putin | Anti-monopoly service, agriculture ministry | Industry and trade ministry | Considering the crisis, the decision is likely to be made in favor of the alliance of FAS and agriculture ministry |
| Pravoe Delo co-chair Georgy Bovt is commissioned with creation of the party’s Moscow office |
|
| If Bovt is not assisted by an experienced organizer, the task implementation is questionable |
| The Presnensky Court of Moscow rules to reconsider suit of the filmmakers’ union |
|
| Court will evade making a decision waiting for a decision of the union’s general meeting |
Volume: 13 pages
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The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
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