NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (61) 749

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (61) 749

February 16 - 22, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

Last week Dmitry Medvedev sharply intensified his activities demonstrating his intention to take a more active part in anti-crisis management, including defining priorities of state support. A clear signal was sent to the functionaries regarding the necessity to be more initiative and thus take more responsibility upon themselves. The criticism was mainly aimed at governors (the policy of ‘stick’ was demonstrated early last week when four governors were dismissed) but the government was also addressed, although the president shared approaches with the PM in the sphere of protectionism in economy amid the crisis.

Dmitry Medvedev’s team also became more active noticeably, especially in its natural sphere of influence – the judicial branch of power. In particular, the higher qualification panel of judges ruled to deprive Lyudmila Maikova, head of the arbitration court of the Moscow district, of her status of judge. She and Moscow Arbitration Court chair Oleg Sviridenko are related to the clientele of the so-called siloviki. Now Supreme Arbitration Court head Anton Ivanov has a chance to build the arbitration vertical, which he has been trying to do for some years. His plans are likely to be even broader as he declared about the necessity to clear up Russia’s laws. If he succeeds, this may lead to bigger attractiveness of court trials compared to informal arbitration by law enforcement bodies, which will decrease their weight. At the same time, one should not overestimate the role of the president’s top hundred reservists, who were announced last week, in the process of strengthening of positions of Dmitry Medvedev’s team. The analysis of its composition shows it consists of representatives of different elite groups.

The staff struggle in the Cabinet remained sharp in general; it received an additional impulse after agriculture minister Alexey Gordeyev and his ‘right hand’ deputy minister Alexander Kozlov left their posts. On the whole, there are two Gordeyev’s deputies who are claiming the vacant post: one of them (Andrey Slepnev) is related to Arkady Dvorkovich’s group while the other (Nikolay Arkhipov) is likely to be a protégé of the so-called siloviki.

Major events February 16, 2009 - February 22, 2009

Event	Winning side	Defeated side	Development Outlooks
Dmitry Medvedev says decline in defense expenses will not affect the army’s modernization and social sphere			Under the conditions of crisis the budget sequester will be substantial and will gradually affect all budget items
The list of the President’s top hundred men is announced	Dmitry Medvedev		There will be selective appointments from this list
Alexey Gordeyev and Alexander Kozlov are nominated to governor of Voronezh and Orlov regions respectively			Candidatures will be approved without problems; Gordeyev’s team will have to leave the agriculture ministry
Just Russia deputies introduce a bill on assigning job quotas to graduates of higher educational establishments			Just Russia will keep voicing populist initiatives
Higher qualification panel of judges rules to deprive Lyudmila Maikova, head of the federal arbitration court of the Moscow district, of the status of judge	Anton Ivanov	Siloviki	Supreme Arbitration Court chair Anton Ivanov will accelerate the process of creating the arbitration vertical
Supreme Court deputy chair Alexander Karpov resigns	Vyacheslav Lebedev		Lebedev’s positions will remain stable in the near future
Valery Zorkin reelected head of the Constitutional Court	Valery Zorkin		Zorkin will retain his post in the next three years
Anastasia Rakova appointed head of the legal department of the government staff	Sergey Sobyanin	Igor Sechin	Contrary to rumors, Sobyanin will not leave the Cabinet in the near future
Justice ministry registers Pravoe Delo			Pravoe Delo will not carry out systemic activities with potential voters in the next few months
Sergey Sobyanin is elected chairman of the board of directors of First Channel	Sergey Sobyanin	Sergey Naryshkin	This change is technical and it will not result in changes in the channel’s policies
Alexey Makushkin is appointed chief of the government’s analytical center			Makushkin may lean on siloviki and Sergey Chemezov like his predecessor
Alexander Chernogorov is appointed deputy agriculture minister			The probability that Chernogorov will be promoted to minister is low
Deputy PM Alexander Zhukov commissions the interior ministry and federal tax service to organize deportation of jobless migrants	Alexander Zhukov		Zhukov will not increase his media activity and may leave his post in the next few months