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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (65) 753

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (65) 753

March 16 - March 22, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

The trend of stabilization of the inside-elite struggle and of the tandem’s desire to maintain the status quo was confirmed last week. This inter alia was attributed to improvement of the social and economic situation. In particular, Dmitry Medvedev interfered in a dispute between the Family group’s Oleg Deripaska and Alfa Group that had been obstinate in settling the issue of the oligarch’s debts to the bank. After a meeting of the president and Mikhail Fridman, the problem turned out to be partially settled, although the ‘moratorium’ is likely to concern only RUSAL and possibly GAZ but it does not cover Oleg Deripaska’s entire business. Thus, the Family group, whose leader Alexander Voloshin lobbied the president’s support, may lose part of the assets but not all of them, which so far removes from the agenda the issue that the group’s material basis is lost. Dmitry Medvedev has acted as Vladimir Putin’s full-grown successor maintaining balance between elite groups and preventing their mutual destruction.

Noticeable staff rotation was observed at some government agencies, which was attributed to correction of inside-elite positions of different officials. There were some big staff changes at the Investigation Committee last week. In particular, internal security department head Vladimir Maximenko lost his post. Some interested observers are trying to interpret this as the IC’s agony, although this is likely to mean the opposite tendency. At the initial stage of the IC’s functioning Alexander Bastrykin needed FSB support and Nikolay Patrushev’s assistance in particular to ensure that the investigation reforms were not played back. Now when it is clear that the tandem will not make any sharp organizational moves during the crisis, Bastrykin has decided to get rid of the allies occupying key posts in the entity and to strengthen his power. This was also promoted by the transfer of Nikolay Patrushev to another post; Bastrykin seems to have no agreements with FSB new chief Alexander Bortnikov.

Fine-tuning of the government also continued. Vladimir Putin introduced some changes in the regulations of the executive power aimed at accelerating the process of drafting documents. Besides, there was noticeable activity on the second and third levels of government resulting in staff reshuffle. The elite is likely to have realized that the revolutionary scenario of developments (dissolution of the Cabinet, etc.) was unrealistic, and trench warfare for redistribution of administrative resources intensified again.

Major events March 16, 2009 - March 22, 2009

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev attends the defense ministry’s board meeting

 

 

Military reforms will continue and authorities will demonstrate symbolic concessions

Information that GRU head Valentin Korabelnikov’s term in office is prolonged for a year (two years, in line with the other version)

Dmitry Medvedev,

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Main Intelligence Directorate (GRU)

GRU may be deprived of the majority of its powers

Dmitry Medvedev speaks at the congress of rectors’ union

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Unified State Exam will not be abolished in the near future

Dmitry Medvedev signs a decree on distributing grants to support NGOs in 2009

 

 

State will keep supporting civil society institutions to ensure their loyalty

Vladimir Putin introduces changes to regulations on the Russian Government

Vladimir Putin

 

Novelties will speed up the process of drafting regulatory legal documents

Former head of Rosavtodor agency Oleg Belozerov is appointed deputy minister of transportation

 

 

There is a version that Belozerov will later replace minister Igor Levitin

Anatoly Chabunin is appointed Rosavtodor agency head

 

 

Chabunin will pursue his predecessor’s policy

Information is published about soon transfer of deputy minister of regional development Vladimir Blank to Rostekhnologii

 

 

Blank’s mission in the ministry is over and his departure will not change administrative layout because of the lack of corresponding duties

First deputy PM Igor Shuvalov is appointed coordinator for CIS affairs

 

 

Dmitry Medvedev’s decision fixes the established division of labor and will not lead to redistribution of administrative resources

Dismissals in the Investigation Committee

Alexander Bastrykin

Nikolay Patrushev

Bastrykin will strengthen his positions in the entity

Court rules that the election of Marlen Khutsiyev as head of the Russian Filmmakers Union was illegal

Nikita Mikhalkov

Marlen Khutsiyev

Nikita Mikhalkov or his protégé will head the union

UR and Federation of Independent Trade Unions of Russia (FNRP) sign agreement on cooperation

FNRP

Sotsprof

FNRP will not be able to influence noticeably the dynamics of protest sentiments at enterprises

Volume: 13 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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