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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (77) 765
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (77) 765
June 8 - 14, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
The informational background was quite varied last week; several different vectors intersected in the reported period but all of them had a common feature – every informational vector was to this or that extent connected with Dmitry Medvedev’s second year of presidency.
As expected, liberal mass media sources started promoting the Pikalevo issue igniting alarmist sentiments and raising the level of tension in the society. They highlighted practically all hotbeds of tension, including potential ones. Citizens of depressed regions and some mono-towns decided to follow the example of Pikalevo residents believing that extreme actions might be successful; they not only blocked highways but also seized products ready for shipment, etc. As some experts warn, such tactics does not guarantee achievement of the set goals. In particular, Elbrustourist workers had to stop their protests having failed to secure implementation of their demands.
Struggle for the agenda was sharp again. Patriots of Russia leader Gennady Semigin at a meeting with the president indirectly proposed to speed up political reforms. This correlated with previous leaks in the mass media that one of the central topics of the president’s next Address would be declaration of “real multi-party system” and refusal of the bipartisan system (that does not exist in reality in Russia). Dmitry Medvedev preferred not to follow the imposed agenda, but he did it in quite a tactful manner. In particular, he acknowledged the difference in the actual status and possibilities between parliamentary and non-parliamentary parties, although he said there should be no “[Great] Wall of China” between them.
Major events June 8, 2009 - June 14, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated sideh | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dmitry Medvedev’s video conference with presidential envoys to federal districts | Dmitry Medvedev, presidential envoys | Governors | Top state leaders won’t make emergency visits to regions where the social situation is tense |
| Protests by workers in some problematic regions |
|
| The mass media will pay more attention to such issues, which will initially increase the number of protest actions |
| Dmitry Medvedev meets with leaders of non-parliamentary parties | Pravoe Delo, Yabloko, Patriots of Russia |
| Political reforms won’t be accelerated but some proposals of non-parliamentary parties may be taken into account in future presidential bills |
| Igor Yurgens’s interview with Handelsblatt | Igor Yurgens |
| Igor Yurgens will leave the camp of radical liberals joining to moderate liberals |
| Vladimir Putin criticizes activities of the Cabinet | Vladimir Putin |
| PM will ‘whip up’ the government from time to time but no improvement will occur without substantial structural and staff changes |
| Dmitry Medvedev commissions defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov to personally control flows of the state defense order funds |
| Anatoly Serdyukov | There will be another wave of rumors about Anatoly Serdyukov’s soon dismissal, which is unlikely to happen |
| Dmitry Aratsky dismissed as deputy minister of regional development |
|
| The vacant post is likely to be occupied by a person coming from the Urals |
| Nikolay Yershov, chief of the defense ministry’s tank-automotive directorate , is dismissed |
|
| The armored forces will practically stop existing as an independent element of the armed forces |
| El Pais publishes materials about ties of the “Russian mafia” with Russia’s top functionaries |
| Anatoly Serdyukov | Leaks of discrediting information through the foreign mass media to pressurize the Russian elite will continue |
| Anatoly Bashlakov, chief of the armed forces’ main directorate for morale and welfare, refutes rumors about mass dismissals of officers |
|
| Mass dismissals are likely to be postponed |
Volume: 13 pages
Other issues:
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The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007