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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (40) 781

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (40) 781

September 28 - October 04, 2009

Main tendencies of political week

The sharpening of ideological struggle for promoting a project of Russia’s post-crisis modernization was the main trend last week. Liberal authors and experts set the pace to the discussion putting forward in fact different terms preserving old meanings (e.g. “competitive democracy” instead of “sovereign democracy”, etc.). Some liberals even proposed to refuse ideology at all, as it is allegedly a sign of undemocratic regimes. Preliminary statistics concerning debates around the president’s article “Go Russia!” was posted. In particular, common participants of the discussion who submitted their comments via the Internet turned out to be not so “politically concerned” as some liberal authors (the share of economic proposals exceeded 30%, while political comments hardly reached 20%).

Simultaneously with the above-described processes liberals were actively promoting the idea that “modernization” and “de-Putinization” were synonyms and that Dmitry Medvedev should start large-scale reshuffle. Thus, the game aimed at splitting the ruling tandem was adjusted to the new agenda receiving the second wind. Some mass media sources also reported that implementation of the president’s initiatives stuck because of the government (i.e. indirectly because of Vladimir Putin). Although further conclusions were not made, the necessity of reshuffles was indirectly highlighted.

The situation on the party field was quite excited. Firstly, the autumn election campaign entered its final stage, including in Moscow. As expected, the Moscow election set the pace to the future campaigns in regions in the next one to two years and probably the 2011 federal election campaign. They will not generate special breaking news, although the non-systemic opposition that planned to participate in every regional election after the Sochi poll (aiming at the 2011 and 2012 elections) was not allowed to participate. The end of the election campaign raises the question about the future of Luzhkov and his clientele inter alia on a federal level. Moreover, the Russian president allowed UR to use his image in its election campaign, which refutes rumors about his desire to distance himself from the party of power.

Attempts to revitalize the liberal party wing became noticeable. Pravoe Delo co-chair Boris Titov and a group of his supporters called for reforming the party’s structure introducing the one-man command. The triumvirate did not live up to the expectations, which was vivid during debates about the party’s participation in the Moscow election. Judging by the reaction of other co-chairs, the initiative will be buried together with the party. Pravoe Delo may be revived for a short period to add more pluralism to the 2011 parliamentary elections, or a new body may be established on its basis.

Major events September 28, 2009 - October 04, 2009

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

A meeting of the commission for modernization and innovation development chaired by Dmitry Medvedev

Dmitry Medvedev

 

Implementation of most presidential initiatives will be hindered

Vladimir Putin says there will be no return to the past social and economic structure

Vladimir Putin

 

Some observers will mistakenly interpret this statement as the PM’s repentance for “state capitalism”

Vladimir Putin says the Cabinet is preparing the strategy of going out of the crisis

Vladimir Putin

 

The president’s address and the PM’s report at a UR congress will supplement each other, contrary to some opposite forecasts

Dmitry Medvedev allows United Russia to use his image in the election campaign

UR

JR

Attempts of JR to position itself as Medvedev’s party will fail

Rostekhnadzor announces the list of guilty in the accident at the Sayano-Shushenskaya power plant

 

Anatoly Chubais

This may be the start of a media campaign aimed at discrediting Anatoly Chubais that may see him partially or fully losing control over RCNT

Boris Titov proposes other co-chairs of Pravoe Delo to introduce the one-man command in the party

Boris Titov

Leonid Gozman, Georgy Bovt

The proposal will be denied; the party may split

Incidents involving the CPRF leader in Mariy El and party activists in Moscow

CPRF

 

Communists like other systemic opposition representatives will try to attract the mass media attention during the last week before the elections

Reorganization of press services of the defense ministry’s entities

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

The minister will control all informational flows going out of the ministry

 

Volume: 13 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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