Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (38) 674

September 10-16, 2007

Main political trends of the week

Last week was rich with significant events in all three political spheres – successors race, government, and parties. Discharge of the cabinet of ministers naturally attracted a great deal of mass media attention, whereas the interest to the latter sphere weakened, despite that several highly significant events took place there as well.

With his unexpected move Vladimir Putin has once again changed the alignment of forces among the potential successors and showed that he had complete control of the situation. The circle of successor candidates has expanded again – in August the list was reduced to two first vice prime ministers, in September – to only Sergei Ivanov. Besides, it has finally become clear that Putin’s successor will be «collective» and the next president will only be a part of this force. In this situation, Viktor Zubkov is a figure of compromise both as PM and as president, however, this does not mean at all that Vladimir Putin has finally picked his heir.

There would be little sense in changing the structure and staff of the government that will resign not later than May 2008, therefore Viktor Zubkov will most likely confine himself to «light tuning» – split several enormous ministries (Healthcare and Social Development, Industry and Energy, Economic Development and Trade). He will keep law enforcement and national security high brass in their seats – Anatoly Serdyukov and Rashid Nurgaliyev, as well as Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Emergency Minister Sergei Shoigu. The main candidates to get sacked are Mikhail Zurabov, Herman Gref, Aleksey Gordeyev, Vladimir Yakovlev, and Alexander Sokolov. Other government players will most likely remain.

Anatoly Serdyukov seem to understand perfectly his strong position – government discharge has not changed the intensity of the «purge» in the defense ministry. Last week Chief Commander of the Navy was fired. DM’s Head of Economics and Finances Service Lyubov Kudelina was promoted to deputy minister. Serdyukov is thus copying the unexpected move style of President Putin – it had been expected that Kudelina would step down and the deputy minister of defense for finances would go to either Sergei Khursevich or Mikhail Motorin, who were appointed advisors for the defense minister.

Despite the natural mass media attention to the potential successors and government players, the parliament race has not come to a halt and significant chances were witnessed here as well. Incidentally, The Just Russia is sinking deeper in crisis that was only partially provoked by intrinsic causes. Most probably, the president has made a strict decision to establish full control of both the parliamentary and presidential elections. This requires pumping up The United Russia’s rating in order to make it absolutely dominant.

KPRF has decided to position itself as the only genuine opposition force, which The United Russia has nothing against - judging by the opponents it has picked for televised debates. The LDPR leader plans to use the patriotism subject and include Andrei Lugovoi, suspected by UK authorities of assassinating «traitor» Litvinenko, into the top of the party’s ticket. SPS risks ending up in a serious crisis – allegedly, Anatoly Chubais decided to stop or substantially reduce investments in the party «in exchange» for the position of Rosnanotekh chief that he was promised during a recent meeting with Vladimir Putin.

Major events Sep 10, 2007 - Sep 16, 2007

Volume: 17 pages