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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (42) 678
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (42) 678
October 8-14, 2007
Main political trends of the week
Last week experts continued tracing the consequences of Vladimir Putin’s decision to lead United Russia’s parliament ticket. Polls show that the rating of the ”power’s party” has increased but not as sharply as expected – 5-6%, while popularity of other campaigners remains the same or fluctuates within statistical uncertainty. United Russia’s opportunities to boost its popularity are depleted. It may still increase if the party concentrates its efforts and makes some sure bets, for example on a thorough program to elucidate the essence of the "Putin’s plan.”
Apart from positive consequences, the Kremlin faced socio-economic issues last week. The increase of prices on primary goods is not only a macroeconomic problem but a political risk as well. Power’s credibility may be undermined not just by the increase of prices but also by the divergence between official statistic and what voters actually see. At that, the mission to find solutions to the problem has been entrusted to regional governments, while the majority of federal power officials are simply trying to find benefits from the bad news.
The competition between "uniformed services” continues and the struggling sides have shown readiness to resort to ultimate measures. The newspaper article of Viktor Cherkesov – the head of the Federal Service of the Russian Federation for the Control of Drug Trafficking – published in Kommersant showed that he has lost his opportunities to communicate his point of view to the president. It also indicates that there are no more banned methods in the competition between "security services” and from now on the high brass security heads are allowed to take the conflict to the media. The situation requires immediate interference from the head of state or the people’s attitude to the uniformed services will deteriorate and pre-elections stability may be damaged.
The struggle between other elite clans was less noticeable last week but not less intense. Industry and Energy Minister Viktor Khristenko has lost the tactical competition for the opportunity to place a disciple into the position of Federal Industry Agency head. The office has been assumed by a protégé of Boris Aleshin and Sergei Chemezov Andrei Dutov. However, Aleshin’s team was counterbalanced in the executive branch with the new Head of Analytical Center Andrei Zverev, appointed by Viktor Zubkov. The prime minister has also taken measures to gain foothold in the executive power staff.
However, the conflict for key government positions did not end last week. Several jobs remain vacant both in the executive branch and in state-owned companies, which may lead to escalation of political in-fighting.
Major events Oct 8, 2007 - Oct 14, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin said he would lead UR’s parliament ticket | UR | JR, LDPR | The Just Russia project will very likely find itself in a crisis |
| Distribution of authority among deputy prime ministers | Aleksey Kudrin | Alexander Zhukov | It is highly possible that Elvira Nabiullina and Dmitry Kozak will start conflicting and the EDTM’s new head will enjoy support from Kudrin |
| Nikolai Bulayev appointed head of Rosobrazovaniye | UR | Government officials will continue stepping into parties after the parliament election | |
| The Russian Pensioners announced exit from JR | JR | In the context of the president’s move this decision is not significant either for JR or for its competitors | |
| Audit Chamber Board expressed no-trust to Auditor Sergei Abramov | Alexander Bastrykin, Nikolai Patrushev | Sergei Stepashin | Stepashin himself may become the next target |
| MiG’s Director General Aleksey Fyodorov was fired | Sergei Chemezov | It is very likely that the enterprise will be headed by a Rosoboronexport protege | |
| Federal Bailiff Service proposed to de-monopolize Federal Property Fund’s control of arrested property | FBS | FPF, EDTM | The government will meet FBS half-way and satisfy a part or all its requests |
| Anatoly Kotelnikov fired from deputy head of Rosatom group | Sergei Kiriyenko (?) | It is quite possible that Kotelnikov will become the head of state corporation Rosatom | |
| Arrest of several high-rank officials of the Drug Traffic Control Agency | Nikolai Patrushev, Alexander Bastrykin | Viktor Cherkesov | Cherkesov will spill discrediting information in mass media controlled by his wife |
| Mikhail Fradkov appointed Head of the Foreign Intelligence Service | Security officials in the Kremlin | Viktor Cherkesov | FIS will stop being neutral and join the conflict of uniformed services on the FSB’s side |
| The State Duma authorized in the first reading the bill that takes deprives the Drug Traffic Control Agency of the right to compile the lists of narcotic substances | Nikolai Patrushev | Viktor Cherkesov | The bill will pass three readings before the end of fall session |
| Kamil Iskhakov appointed as deputy head of Regional Development Ministry | Dmitry Kozak | Kamil Iskhakov | Iskhakov’s authority will be formal |
| Sergei Oganesyan resigned as Rosenergo chief | Sergei Bogdanchikov | It is possible that Oganesyan will assume a top office in Rosneft or Rosatom | |
| Anatoly Serdyukov appeared during the “government hour” in the State Duma | Anatoly Serdyukov | Serdyukov will continue hiding in the shadow and at the same time trying to make a showing of an effective minister |
Volume: 16 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
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The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007