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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (44) 680
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (44) 680
October 22-28, 2007
Main political trends of the week
The main event of last week was the resumed “third presidential term” topic. Rallies in support of the 3rd Putin term were organized in several regions. Although the president keeps repeating that the Constitution cannot be changed, the rallies will continue. The movement will gradually emerge on national level and self-organize into a vertical structure. This political force will secure easy return for Vladimir Putin to presidency after May 2008.
It is worth noting that officials were unable to demonstrate unity of the top and the bottom on this problem. Last week some workers of culture asked Putin to observe the Constitution and step down in a response to the Rossiyskaya Gazeta publication by their colleagues, who on the opposite asked him to stay. However, the fact that a top SPS member Mariatta Chudakova was among those, who signed this letter to Putin, may mean that the letter to RG was organized by this party and will be used in the future as an instrument of agitation.
In general, parties were on the sidelines of politics but some stir was noticeable at the end of the week as registration of parliament tickets finished. The majority of runners made it to the next round of the parliament campaign, which was predictable.
The president made the news last week as he denied plans to redistribute authority among state services in order to reduce escalating infighting. Changes to several ministries’ structures ended competition for authority in the new Cabinet of Ministers. The Head of Economic Development and Trade Ministry Elvira Nabiullina failed to hinder weakening of her ministry although she had made desperate attempts. The reason she was futile is Regional Minister Dmitry Kozak’s countermeasures. In the mean time, the status of another new state committee – Fishery Committee – is less certain because it is opposed by a strong lobby that apart from Agriculture Ministry includes FSB and Defense Ministry officials.
Last week prices on 6 types of primary goods were frozen until February 2008, which should stop increase.
Major events Oct 22, 2007 - Oct 28, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Personnel turnover in the Regional Development Ministry | Dmitry Kozak | The “purge” in the ministry will continue, key figures may be sacked from subsidiary services | |
Rossvyazokhrankultura (the Russian Federal Surveillance Service for Compliance with the Law in Mass Communications and Cultural Heritage Protection) announced plans to propose its version of digital television program | Boris Boyarskov | Leonid Reiman | Boyarskov’s attack on Reiman may turn out successful |
Modest Kolerov resigned from head of presidential administration’s directorate for interregional and cultural connections with foreign states | This event will not lead to realignment of forces in politics because it had been expected for a long time | ||
JR Duma faction member Aleksey Timofeyev said the party should be dissolved | UR | JR | The exodus of elite players from JR will continue but may turn out to be not too detrimental for JR’s points because UR has stopped recruiting new members |
UR asked regional offices to stop recruiting new members | UR | This measure will allow the party administrators to prevent JR’s agents from getting inside | |
Rallies in the support of Vladimir Putin’s 3rd consecutive presidency were held in several regions of Russia | presidential administration’s political technologists | Such rallies will continue and a structured movement will emerge | |
Deputy Head of Economic Development and Trade Ministry sacked | Russia Bank owners | This firing will not deliver serious damage to the interests of the clan because EDTM has lost a large portion of its administrative power | |
Andrei Zasypkin appointed head of the Federal Agency for Frontier Facilities’ Construction | Viktor Cherkesov, Russia Bank owners | Andrei Belyaninov, Nikolai Patrushev | Zasypkin will try to get the largest authority possible from FGUP Rostek |
Natural Resources Minister Yuri Trutnev said it was necessary to open a single environmental control service | Yuri Trutnev, Oleg Mitvol | Konstantin Pulikovsky | In the nearest time Rostekhnadzor may conflict with Rosprirodnadzor |
Federation Council Speaker Sergei Mironov said he was “seriously thinking of and working at” the third presidential term topic | Sergei Mironov (?) | UR (?) | Mironov may lose the momentum again if he concentrates on the third term issue and ignores emergence of the movements support Putin |
Volume: 15 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007