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Putin shift heralds recast of Russian government machine

MOSCOW, Oct 1, 2007 (AFP)

President Vladimir Putin's run for parliament and readiness to keep power as prime minister mark a momentous power shift with potential to fortify parliamentary pluralism in Russia or revive a Soviet-style one-party state, analysts said.  

Putin, 54, continues to enjoy extraordinary popularity ratings as he approaches the end of his second and final consecutive term as president, and is certain to retain a high degree of authority in any future political incarnation. 

But while experts said that such concentration of political power in one figure is fraught with danger to the vitality of democracy, it may also be just the ingredient needed in Russia today to dilute the reach of the presidency while fortifying other institutions and the rule of law.  

'This is a revolutionary step,' Kremlin-linked political analyst Gleb Pavlovsky commented after Putin told a congress of the ruling United Russia party that he would run on the party ticket for a seat in parliament in December and could later become prime minister. 

'It is the first time since 1991 that the centre of influence could leave the Kremlin,' Pavlovsky said. 'It is a serious step toward real pluralism in the country.'  

Other political experts believe that a fundamental change in the machinery of Russian government was now in progress. 

'It will mean a redistribution of authority' at the top echelons of the state, said Maria Lipman, analyst with the Carnegie Moscow Centre.  

'This could mean that Russia may be drifting toward a dominant party system' wherein only one party is able to form a government.  


At the same time, Lipman said, the decision by the popular Putin to run for election to parliament and consider a future role as prime minister could help revitalize institutions -- specifically the parliament and the government -- previously 'emasculated' by his administration.  

Chris Weafer, long-time Russia analyst and commentator for the brokerage bank Uralsib Financial Corporation, said it was clear that 'Putin will remain the most important politician in Russia' for several years at least. 

This could foster political stability and encourage investors, Weafer said, but 'critics of Russia's democratic process will see this as a further example of the return to the power structures of the Soviet Union.'  

Should Putin win a seat in the Duma and subsequently take over as head of government 'it would represent the start of a very radical change in the structure of government in Russia,' Weafer said, noting that it would dramatically upgrade the post of prime minister. 

Putin has in recent years rejected the idea of a parliamentary system of government for Russia, saying that the country's first political priority in that regard was to consolidate its many, fractious political groups into fewer and stronger parties with national reach.  

But speaking during his annual Kremlin news conference in January 2006, the Russian leader, referring to possible creation of a parliamentary republic in Russia, said that in the future 'anything is possible.' 

A scenario under which Putin would leave the Kremlin and the presidency but take over as prime minister and move into the government headquarters -- it is known as 'The White House' in Moscow -- has been bandied about for several years.  

Konstantin Simonov, another Moscow political analyst, said Putin's announcement on Monday could indicate that just such a scenario was starting to be played out.  

'I cannot rule out the possibility that Russia will change from a presidential form of leadership to a parliamentary' government, he said.  

  

Source: Agence France Presse


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics

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