Zubkov in frame to succeed Putin

Viktor Zubkov, Russia's prime minister designate, yesterday said he did not rule out standing for president next year, thrusting his name on to the list of potential successors to Vladimir Putin.

His comments fuel led speculation in the Russian media and among analysts that he could emerge as a short-term president - who might later stand down to allow Mr Putin to return.

Kremlinologists initially saw Mr Zubkov as an unlikely presidential candidate, after Mr Putin nominated him as new premier after the resignation on Wednesday of the government led by the technocratic Mikhail Fradkov.

Mr Zubkov - set today to be confirmed as premier by Russia's lower house of parliament - eschewed the cautious language of those previously seen as frontrunners to succeed Mr Putin, the two first deputy prime ministers, Sergei Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev.

Both have batted away questions on their presidential ambitions by refusing to comment or suggesting they were too busy to give the matter much thought. "If I achieve something in the post of premier, then it's not excluded that this could happen," was Mr Zubkov's more direct response when asked if he would become president.

Under the Russian constitution, Mr Putin must stand down next March after two four-year terms and he has repeatedly said he will not change the law so he can stand for a third consecutive term. But the possibility of his return after a break - allowed by the constitution - became a hot topic among Moscow's political classes this summer.

Mr Zubkov, who is 66 tomorrow, was initially seen as too old to preside over a country which has grown suspicious of geriatric leaders and which has embraced Mr Putin - recently pictured in macho poses on a fishing holiday - in part because of his youthful image.

Kommersant newspaper, however, yesterday said Mr Zubkov's age might fit him for the role of "'temporary' head of state until the return of Vladimir Putin to power after the 2008 elections".

Andrei Piontkovsky, a political analyst, suggested Mr Zubkov's appointment was a victory for powerful hardliners such as Igor Sechin and Viktor Ivanov, deputy chiefs of the Kremlin staff with a background in intelligence. "They wanted Mr Putin to serve a third term or, if not, they wanted their own man in the job," Mr Piontkovsky said. Mr Zubkov, he added, was approved of by Kremlin hardliners and could be an ideal holding president if Mr Putin planned to come back.

Others suggested Mr Zubkov might remain as prime minister under a new president.

As a Putin confidant - the two worked closely together in St Petersburg in the 1990s - he could provide continuity and a lever of influence for the Russian president even after he stepped down.

Konstantin Simonov, president of the Centre for Current Politics, a Moscow think tank, said Mr Zubkov might become president. But he forecast changes to Russia's power structure that would downgrade the president's role and vest real influence in another post - which Mr Putin would occupy.

In his first detailed explanation of the reshuffle, Mr Putin yesterday said that it would ensure the Russian government would continue to work effectively and "without failures" through both parliamentary elections in December and next year's presidential campaign. Mr Zubkov said he planned "structural changes" in his new government, amid speculation that several ministers, including German Gref, the liberal economy minister, and Mikhail Zurabov, the unpopular health minister, could lose their jobs.

Written by Neil Buckley

Published: Financial Times, London Ed1, Page 8