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Medvedev, Putin steer clear of Kremlin-Cabinet competition

Russia’s current leaders – President Dmitry Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin – have taken every conceivable precaution to minimize competition between the presidential staff in the Kremlin and the Cabinet of Ministers and to ensure their tight interaction.

This is the gist of many analysts’ interpretation of the new make-ups of the Cabinet of Ministers and the presidential staff, made public on Monday.

When Putin read out the description of the new structure of the Cabinet and the list of personnel appointments, many thought that as a matter of fact there has been a merger of part of the presidential staff and the government.

Appointments to senior positions in the policing, law enforcement, security and military agencies – in a word, the ‘strength-wielding’ segment of the Russian establishment, the siloviki – heralded to many an end to “the war by special services” the public at large was a witness to during the pre-election period.

Although the basic configuration of the new edifice of power has been finalized, nobody dares say where the key decisions will be made – inside the Kremlin wall, or the Cabinet’s white-marble building several miles away from it.

Putin has left the government’s structure basically unchanged, but he reshuffled functions and changed the subordination of ministries and agencies. In the new Cabinet there will be seven deputy prime ministers, including two first deputies.

Newcomers from the Kremlin took three seats of deputy premiers.

“Analysts believe the Cabinet of Ministers and of the presidential staff have the same degree of influence, and this ‘dual power state’ will last at least till the end of the year,” says the daily Novyie Izvestia.

The roles of the two first deputy prime ministers will be different, analysts believe.

Viktor Zubkov, the former prime minister, will supervise agriculture, including the national project of the same name, and Igor Shuvalov, a former presidential adviser and liberal economist, will be responsible for tariffs and foreign trade, including WTO admission talks.

Zubkov is likely to remain a technical figure, says Tatyana Stanovaya, the chief of the analysis department at the Center of Political Technologies.

“Zubkov has his own unique style of management – harsh, Soviet-looking - and many people like it. In the public space he will be responsible for the performance of the dairy products industry, for harvesting and for the protection of the sturgeon.”

Number two in the Putin Cabinet after the prime minister, experts agree, will be Igor Shuvalov – a very strong personality. His proximity to Medvedev is common knowledge. As a member of the presidential staff Shuvalov, as a matter of fact, supervised the government’s activity and formulated all social and economic policy guidelines, reflected in Putin’s strategic statements (including annual state-of-the-nation messages).

In part, Shuvalov will be responsible for the activity of natural monopolies – and this is one of the mainstream activities in the context of the current Russian economy.

“The amount of his powers as it is, Shuvalov looks number two in the government hierarchy after Prime Minister Putin,” says the daily Vremya Novostei.

The new government will have five ‘rank-and-file’ deputy prime ministers. Alexander Zhukov, Sergei Ivanov and Alexei Kudrin have retained their posts. The former chief of the presidential staff, Sergei Sobyanin, and his deputy, Igor Sechin, have joined in.

Of all the five ‘ordinary’ deputy prime ministers Alexei Kudrin stands out somewhat. Whenever it comes to macroeconomic affairs, he will have to act in contact with Shuvalov. He has retained control of the credit, financial and budget policies, and also of the financial markets.

Sobianin, who will run the government staff, will keep an eye on cooperation with regions and law-making activities, and Sechin, on the energy and industry, except for the defense-industrial complex.

From Dmitry Medvedev Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Zhukov has inherited three national projects – education, the health service and housing construction.

Sechin’s appointment triggered quite a few comments.

“The very instance of an outspoken silovik, known only too well for his ability to pool oil assets and place them under the control of the state, being appointed to the position of a deputy prime minister, is a telling sign in itself,” says the daily Gazeta. “It is obvious that the expansion of the state in these sectors of the economy will continue and more muscle will be put into the government-run holding companies.”

As the deputy chief of the Center of Political Technologies, Alexei Makarkin, explained to the daily Noviye Izvestia, “the just-formed Cabinet will be a political, and not a purely economic one.”

The presidential staff will now be coordinating its decisions with the Cabinet.

Political scientist Stanislav Belkovsky claims there will be not one government, but two.

“Shuvalov and Zubkov will address day-to-day affairs, and Putin and Sechin will dedicate themselves to mega-projects,” the daily quotes the analyst as saying.

Sergei Naryshkin, a former chief of the government staff, has been appointed to run the presidential one.

The president of the Center for Current Politics, Konstantin Simonov, told the RBC Daily this means that the presidential staff in the new system of power will be converted into a “political headquarters of the president and the ideological think-tank of the president and government.”

Vladislav Surkov has been promoted to first deputy chief of the presidential staff and, as political analysts agree, he will remain “the chief ideologist.”

According to the Kremlin’s press-service, Surkov will run home policy matters. Alexei Gromov, the former presidential press-secretary, and Alexander Beglov, a former presidential aide, will both take posts of presidential staff deputies. As a result, say analysts, there is emerging “a certain system of control of the new head of state.”

“The very fact that Putin’s man, Naryshkin, has been selected to lead the presidential staff, speaks for itself,” says Simonov.

The changes in “the strongmen’s side of town” are considerable. The appointment of the former director of the federal security service FSB, Nikolai Patrushev, as Security Council secretary looks the most significant of all. Many analysts have interpreted this as “honorary demotion,” rather than a springboard for further promotion. At different times this post played a variety of functions.

Patrushev’s transfer to the Security Council might pretty well look like an honorary retirement on pension, but for once nuance, says the daily Gazeta. According to the newspaper’s sources the State Duma has been working on a piece of legislation entitled On the National Strategy, which would enhance the role of the Security Council. If the president and prime minister approve the bill, the Security Council will be the center responsible for determining the key parameters of that strategy.

The newly-appointed FSB director is Alexander Bortnikov, a person with a background of a St. Petersburg silovik. So far he has led the FSB’s economic security division.

Experts say his appointment is called to ensure continuity in the community of Russia’s siloviki.

“So far he has had no significant political weight, but as a representative of the St. Petersburg group he will be rather effective,” says political scientist Alexei Mukhin.

The trio of Deputy Prime Minister Sechin, FSB Director Bortnikov and Security Council Secretary Patrushev will be conducting a new economic policy – that of pooling assets under the aegis of the state and developing state corporations that are about to replace private businesses virtually in all branches of the economy, says the daily Gazeta.

The director of the federal drugs control service Viktor Cherkesov has changed seats, too. Now he is in charge of the federal service for the supply of armaments, military and special equipment and materials.

Experts say this is sign of a defeat in the so-called war of secret services, often associated with the personalities of Nikolai Patrushev and Viktor Cherkesov.

Political scientist Mukhin believes the conflict between the special services was an irritant for both Putin and Medvedev and “the personnel consequences have followed at last.”

For Putin it is extremely important to minimize competition between the presidential staff and the executive authorities and to ensure their closest cooperation. Apparently, this explains why the former head of the government staff, Sergei Naryshkin, was delegated to the Kremlin to the identical post. He looks like the one who is capable of building a harmonious and effective relationship between the Kremlin and the Cabinet.

By Itar-Tass World Service writer Lyudmila Alexandrova, May 13, 2008.


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

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State Corporations in the Russian Economy
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«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics

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