Russia is deciding whom to support in Ukraine's presidential election

Moscow may support Tymoshenko in Ukraine's presidential election.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko held talks in Moscow over the weekend. Unexpectedly, both sides demonstrated an ability to reach agreement on the three most problematic issues: natural gas for Ukrainian consumers, the Black Sea Fleet's base in the Crimea, and Ukraine's NATO membership prospects.

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko held talks in Moscow over the weekend. Unexpectedly, both sides demonstrated an ability to reach agreement on the three most problematic issues: natural gas for Ukrainian consumers, the Black Sea Fleet's base in the Crimea, and Ukraine's NATO membership prospects. Tymoshenko's supporters have already dubbed her talks with Putin a "summit of future presidents." Skeptics are pointing out that Viktor Yanukovych will also visit Moscow for inspection in the near future.

The occasion for the meeting of two prime ministers was a meeting of the Ukrainian-Russian Inter-State Commission for Economic Cooperation. The two sides met for almost three hours. Putin emphasized that for the first time in many years, there are no debts for current gas payments between Russian suppliers and Ukrainian consumers (although some debts still remain from previous years). "We would very much like to see the transition to European price formation take place gradually," said Putin, noting that our "partners from Central Asia would like this to happen as soon as January 1, 2009."

This is a rather unexpected statement, given that a day earlier, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller predicted that Russia would charge Ukraine around $400 per thousand cubic meters for natural gas. If Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Kazakhstan raise their gas prices for Russia to the European level, but Moscow postpones taking similar steps with regard to Ukraine, this would mean Russia continuing to subsidize the Ukrainian economy.

This may be why Tymoshenko made a conciliatory statement about the Black Sea Fleet. The previous day, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry yet again denied any possibility of the Fleet's presence at Sevastopol being extended beyond 2017, calling for the withdrawal to start immediately. Tymoshenko requested everyone to "refrain from escalating emotions" regarding the Fleet, and promised Putin that the agreement on the base to 2017 will be upheld "very precisely and with no deviations." Tymoshenko also showed some flexibility in relation to Ukraine joining NATO: "The opinion of the people is the determining factor for us. The path that Ukraine takes will be based on a referendum."

Putin ended the press conference with a compliment: "Tymoshenko is a self-sufficient politician and does not need any outside advice." A source from Putin's staff told us that the focus on constructive approaches is the most important outcome of the bilateral talks: "It has finally been understood that bilateral dialogue is necessary for solving problems."

The experts we approached for comments have differing views on the meeting's results. "Russia lacks a long-term detailed strategy regarding Ukraine," says Konstantin Simonov, president of the Russian Political Conjuncture Center. It is premature to claim that Russia has decided to back Tymoshenko in Ukraine's next presidential election. "Besides, it isn't clear who would be better - Tymoshenko or Yushchenko," says Simonov. "I think they're both worse." He says that both Tymoshenko and Yushchenko are unpredictable; both are "typical representatives of Ukraine's political culture."

Konstantin Zatulin, senior deputy chairman of the Duma's committee for CIS affairs and contacts with compatriots abroad, also advises against rushing to back any Ukrainian candidate. "In Russia and in the West alike, Tymoshenko only says what people want to hear from her - nothing more," says Zatulin. He maintains that none of Ukraine's top three politicians, not even Yanukovych, is suitable for the role of an acceptable candidate in terms of Russia's interests in Ukraine.

All the same, at present Tymoshenko is the only one of the "big three" with substantial voter support in both Western Ukraine and Eastern Ukraine. Andrei Yermolayev, president of the Sofia Research Center in Kiev, says that Moscow certainly regards Tymoshenko as a promising politician: "The Kremlin has been disappointed by Viktor Yushchenko's presidency and has an interest in replacing the ruling faction in Ukraine. But the question of whom Moscow will back remains open. The election year of 2009 will be very difficult in Ukraine, with rising gas prices, joining the WTO, and financial instability. Thus, it makes sense for Moscow to wait before moving to increase its influence on Ukraine's political elite. The talks with Tymoshenko were only an inspection session."

Yermolayev notes that while Tymoshenko is a good tactician, she lacks a doctrine and a majority in parliament: "Her views on NATO and humanitarian issues keep fluctuating, and her actions in the field of economic regulation are often unpredictable." According to our sources in Kiev, Moscow can expect another visit from a likely presidential candidate within the next two weeks: Viktor Yanukovych.

RBC Daily, June 30, 2008, p. 1