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USA may support projects to build new transit pipelines via Russia

For a long time, the United States' interest in the Caspian region was explained by the creation of alternative routes of hydrocarbons transit to Europe bypassing Russia. However, China seems to be a more serious rival than Russia. This is why the United States' main goal in the region is Iran, with its 15.7% of the world's total proven gas reserves, and barring Caspian oil and Central Asian gas from the Chinese and Indian markets.

At present, political tensions have begun to rise on all potential gas transit routes from Iran to India and China (proof of this is Pervez Musharraf's resignation).

The South Ossetian war drama is not yet over when some other areas may be added to the map of military conflicts in the region. A new war may flare up in Nagorny Karabakh. Azerbaijan managed to make good money from oil sales over the past two years (its oil output rose by 44.9% in 2006 and by 31.7% in 2007) and invested it in the army, among other things. The United States may keep aloof at the first strike stage (like it was in South Ossetia) and then get another pretext for the entry of its armed forces into the region.

Obviously, the United States and some European countries will oppose the presence of Russian troops with any mandate in both Georgia and South Ossetia and insist on the NATO or American peacekeepers' presence in Georgia. If the events in South Ossetia are presented as Russia's aggression (against Georgia), this will serve as a pretext for their presence.

US military presence in Georgia and Azerbaijan will increase military pressure on Iran. It will outweigh the importance of transit pipelines bypassing Russia. The theme of the Trans-Caspian and Nabucco gas pipeline projects, as well as some other projects, may be closed. Central Asian countries will have two options left: gas transit to Europe via Russia, or entry to the Chinese market. The second option is more dangerous for the US. Therefore, theoretically, it is quite possible to win US support for new pipeline projects via Russia, but Russia will have to pay dearly for such support. It will have to abandon Iran and to ignore China's strategic interests. It is difficult to make a choice. However, Russia's multi-vector foreign policy is coming to an end.

Konstantin Simonov, director general of the National Energy Security Fund

Source: Vedomosti (What the Russian papers say, RIA Novosti) - August 19, 2008


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