Moscow close to recognition of Abkhazia, South Ossetia - analysts

It looks like Moscow is very close to translating into reality the old-time wish of the self-proclaimed republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia and to formally back their independence.

The recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia is a matter of days, many analysts say.

As far as Russia is concerned, it all looks very simple and there will be no problems. The idea is welcomed by the state institutions and the public at large. Not so with the international community, which just recently almost unanimously approved the independence of Kosovo.

The procedure of recognizing the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia has been launched already, says the daily Nezavisimaya Gazeta with reference to Abkhazian leader Sergei Bagapsh.

On Wednesday the parliaments of both self-proclaimed republics voted for their presidents' messages addressed to the leadership of Russia requesting the recognition of independence. And on the previous day both leaders had been received by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev.

It looks like Moscow is prepared to make a positive response to the wish of the Abkhazians and South Ossetians. On Wednesday, Federation Council speaker Sergei Mironov declared the upper house's readiness to recognize South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

"The Federation Council is ready to recognize the independent status of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, if that is the wish of these republics' peoples and if there is a corresponding decision by the Russian president," Mironov said.

The Federation Council will respond to the calls for the recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia with a political statement or a message addressed to the president.

In the meantime, the State Duma's First Deputy Speaker Oleg Morozov, of the United Russia faction, has speculated that the lower house on Monday may approach the Russian leadership with a proposal for recognizing the independence of Abkhazia. United Russia, he said, will certainly raise the issue of South Ossetia and the situation in the Caucasus that emerged in the wake of Georgia's aggression.

Both houses of parliament will meet in early session on August 25.

Back on August 14 President Dmitry Medvedev told the leaders of the self-proclaimed republics in Moscow that Russia would stand by any decision of their peoples regarding the republics' status and will act as the guarantor in the world.

The next day, at a meeting with Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel he formulated his position in these words.

"After the events that have taken place it is very improbable the Ossetians and the Abkhazians may agree to live in the same state with the Georgians. And Russia, as the safeguard of security in the Caucasus, will accept the decision that will unequivocally reflect the will of these two people of the Caucasus."

Sergei Bagapsh said Russia was the first country the two peoples had turned to for recognition. If Moscow recognizes their right to existence independent from Georgia, Sukhumi and Tskhinval will address the other countries of the world, and also the United Nations, the OSCE and the European Union with a similar request.

Neither republic plans to hold referendums.

"Why should we have yet another referendum? We have already held several of them," Abkhazia's Foreign Minster Sergei Shamba explained. "The latest such poll was in 1999. The outcome is known - the Abkhazians wish to be independent from Georgia."

The results of that referendum were first confirmed by the members of parliament and, a short while later, by a large rally in Sukhumi's main square, attended by elders, delegates from localities, parties and non-governmental organizations, communities and various religions.

And on the same day a large rally in the main South Ossetian city, Tskhinval adopted an appeal to the Russian president and the speakers of both houses of the Russian parliament to recognize independence of the Republic of South Ossetia.

"Our people is tired of living amidst expectations of more and more attacks by armed Georgian hordes; our people is exhausted with the weight of hardships that befell our lot. Our people wishes to live in peace and build a peaceful and safe future for their children. All this is possible only in the conditions of international recognition of state independence of South Ossetia. There is no other way; any attempts to include South Ossetia into Georgia are tantamount to the resumption of genocide of our people," the document said.

Konstantin Simonov, the director of the Center for Current Politics, is quoted by the Rosbalt news agency as saying that everything will depend on whether Russia will be able to negotiate the issue with the United States and on a future US reaction.

"I believe that theoretically the United States might agree to the recognition of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, but not instantly, though. The key question is what it may get in return. It has been clear all the way what we will be asked to do - to give our tacit consent to mounting military pressures on Iran. Whether we are prepared to accept such an exchange is a question to be addressed to our diplomats."

Dmitry Orlov, the general director of the Political and Economic Communications Center, believes that five or six countries affiliated with the Commonwealth of Independent States representing different regions, including Central Asia and Europe, may decide to support the independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Moscow has made the decision in principle, says analyst Nikolai Silayev, of the Center of Caucasus Studies at the Moscow diplomatic university MGIMO.

"Whereas before Russian diplomacy used "the unrecognized ones" as a means of putting pressure on Tbilisi, now the issue of the day is resolving a problem that has come to a head," the Marketing and Consulting agency quotes Silayev as saying.

"In exchange, Russia might agree to Kosovo's admission to the United Nations," he speculated.

Fyodor Lukyanov, the editor-in-chief of Russia in Global Affairs magazine, claims that no other country will follow in Russia's footsteps to recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

Alexander Rahr, the program director for Russia at the German Council on Foreign Policy, is quoted by the Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily as saying that both self-proclaimed republics will be recognized by Russia within days and one should have no doubts about that. But what will happen next?

"Unofficially everybody understands that the post-Soviet space cannot be re-carved and rearranged at the West's sole discretion. There is no chance for that. Should the West try to do so, there may follow a clash with Russia, and this is something the West does not want to happen in principle."

But there will be problems with security the recognition of these republics' sovereignty.

"The West was almost unanimous to recognize the independence of Kosovo. From the standpoint of international law it was a wrong decision, but the strength was on the winner's side. It is most important for Russia now to stop to think who will support the independence of Abkhazia and, in fact, annexation of South Ossetia."

Rahr believes that some countries may recognize Abkhazia after all.

"Firstly, it may be Cuba, Venezuela, and, if correct pressures are exerted on Lukashenko, Belarus. Even Turkey may join in, although not at once. As for the others, including the CIS countries, they will be looking at what Europe will do.

"Not a single country in the West will recognize Abkhazia now. Russia must proceed from the understanding that Abkhazia will have the same status as Northern Cyprus. This will upset the rather fragile balance of the world order that has existed since the end of the 'cold war'," the analyst said.

By Itar-Tass World Service writer Lyudmila Alexandrova, August 21, 2008.