Europe ready for a new Cold War with Russia

Yesterday's European Union emergency summit was not the first or last attempt by the bloc to review its relations with Russia, writes a Russian analyst. Konstantin Simonov, director general of the National Energy Security Foundation, writes in the popular daily Vedomosti that Europe has repeated its old mistake by looking at its current agenda when it should be peering into a more distant future.

Evidence of this is its proposal to halt talks on a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement with Russia, which has no links with the economic and political dialogue, or to block Russia's accession to the World Trade Organization, which is crumbling due to the stance of its member countries. Simonov said the EU stance comprises two parts. One is the stance of its Eastern European members, who claim Russia has always been an aggressor and, should it grow stronger, will attack everyone in an attempt to restore the empire. The other, advocated by Old Europe, is that Europe should treat Russia with caution for fear of losing it as the main fuel and energy supplier.

The latter view is more pragmatic but it also does not give Russia the right to consider itself a European country. The two parts of the EU are therefore ready for a new Cold War with Russia. However, the new EU members are eager to start it, while the old members would like to see a softer version of the 1970s and 1980s, when the Cold War did not prevent Soviet oil and natural gas supplies.

This is impossible now, the analyst writes. The division of politics and business in the 1970s and 1980s was possible only because Europe had alternative hydrocarbons suppliers, whereas the Soviet Union had no other markets for its energy resources. Russia and Europe must now either admit failure to come to terms and start preparations for a war, which may even deteriorate into a "hot" phase, or try to develop a new system of global security to replace the old one ruined not by the conflict with Georgia but largely by the actions of the United States.

The U.S. has long stopped respecting the opinion of international institutions, which is damaging Europe, Simonov writes. Examples can be seen in the war in Yugoslavia, which resulted in the creation of several Muslim states in the heart of Europe, the Kyoto Protocol, which has failed to become effective because of the U.S. stance, the war in Georgia, and a possible war against Iran, which will kill Europe's last hope for alternative hydrocarbon sources. The sides have not yet passed the point of no return beyond which a global war may become inevitable. Russia and the EU can still negotiate a new world order, eventually involving other players.

However, Europe seems intent on pushing Russia towards China, Simonov writes. The Russian authorities are now more eagerly discussing a stronger union with China.

Source: Vedomosti (What the Russian papers say, RIA Novosti) - September 02, 2008