State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2018, prospects for 2019

NESF traditionally concludes the year with its final report that sums up main events and tendencies of 2018. The year was rich in events in the political and production spheres.

A new government was formed in Russia in May. Oil prices were either rising or falling, which led practically to termination of the OPEC+ deal and then to feverish attempts to reformat it.

Gazprom set another record in gas exports and completed construction of two lines of the TurkStream, while NOVATEK launched three trains of its LNG plant in Yamal. It was happening on the background of the Europeans’ desperate struggle against the Nord Stream 2 and threats to import LNG from America.

The deal on selling a stake in Rosneft to Chinese investors failed, which was a heavy blow to the state company. This, however, did not hinder Rosneft from participating in corporate battles throughout the year.

The year 2018 was marked by a new tax system for oil producers; it includes acceleration of the tax maneuver, introduction of the excess profit tax (EPT) as an experiment, as well as negative and dampening excises for producers of petroleum products.

Growth in domestic fuel prices and ways to counter it were actively debated throughout the year. It is a general scene of the year 2018.

You can find out details in the NESF report that elaborates on the following topics:

• The new system administrating the oil and gas sector in action

  • The first results of work of a new Deputy PM responsible for the sector
  • “Privatization” of the Ministry of Natural Resources and consequences of it
  • Attempts to restart the Presidential Commission on the Strategy for the Development of the Fuel and Energy Sector and Environmental Safety
  • The new role of the Ministry of Energy

• Another package of tax novelties

  • The tax regime in the oil sector was again revised in 2018. It was decided to speed up cancelation of export duties and simultaneously increase the minerals production tax (NDPI).
  • As compensation, the sector is finally allowed to test a new tax regime – the excess profit tax. However, the situation around the EPT is not simple, while acceleration of the tax maneuver is fraught with growth in domestic fuel prices. The Cabinet was struggling with this problem the whole autumn. Is the found solution reasonable?

• The Arctic was the top topic in 2018

  • The state again brought back the Arctic issue onto the agenda. A new system of state administration of this region is being created; there are quite serious battles between main clans.
  • The Arctic is the zone of keen interest of many oil and gas companies; this is why, they cannot fail to take part in these battles.

• Production and financial results of 2018

  • How does the OPEC+ deal influence the oil output level?
  • How does the level of exports and domestic demand for natural gas in Russia define the gas output level?
  • Investment activity and profitability of companies.

• Corporate wars in 2018

• What should be expected in 2019?

  • Political, production, financial and fiscal expectations from the new yea

Contents of the report: