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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (45) 681
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (45) 681
October 29 – November 4, 2007
Main political trends of the week
The main destabilizing news last week was the explosion in Tolyatti that took the lives of 8 people. This incident provoked a new wave of conspiracy theories. Recently, such theories prevail when extraordinary events happen in the country and the most sinister role is arrogated to special services. This phenomenon is easy to explain – political uncertainty intensifies reaction to any unexpected event and leads to the searching of a special secret sense. The initial reaction in the media to the explosion reflects the uncertainty in the Russian society against the background of political apathy.
The parliament campaign remains sluggish despite the start of a new stage – official agitation. This is due to the lack of real competition and intrigue because everyone knows, how the race will wind up. In this situation, what’s interesting are not results of December 2 voting but the future of the State Duma. In particular, last week sources in the United Russia said the party’s parliament faction could be split into four ideological blocks in the next State Duma. On the whole, such move may improve UR’s popularity but may also have certain risks.
The government field was moderately intense last week. Oleg Safonov’s firing from deputy minister of the interior had been expected since August hen he went on long-term leave. This layoff gave just a brief respite for Rashid Nurgaliyev, to whose office he aspired, because right now at least two high rank officials of the ministry belong to the group of president’s appointees. The new appointment of Safonov – as presidential plenipotentiary in the southern federal district – looks quite logical and in line with the interests of the “personnel controllers” clan.
Two documents promulgated last week have given experts food for thought. Governmental decree distributing positions inside commissions confirmed that Aleksey Kudrin’s foothold in the government is strengthening but owing to several factors it seems premature to say that he is being prepared for the prime minister position. Another document authorized by the government is the State Fishery Committee draft clause that unambiguously confirms the victory of this service’s head Andrei Krainy in the protracted standoff against Agriculture Minister Aleksey Gordeyev over control of the fishery industry.
Major events Oct 29, 2007 - Nov 4, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Some of the Russian Pensioners heads said they wanted to restore RPP | UR | JR | Attacks on The Just Russia will continue |
Dmitry Akhanov appointed head of Rosenergo | Anatoly Chubais |
| Rosenergo will be handling only power sector |
Vladimir Belov appointed deputy head of Healthcare and Social Development Ministry | Tatyana Golikova |
| Belov will be one of the main members of the new minister’s team |
Oleg Safonov appointed presidential plenipotentiary in the Far-Eastern Federal District | Viktor Ivanov, Rashid Nurgaliyev |
| Safonov will have control of the financial streams that will be channeled to the region to prepare for APEC summit |
Investigation of Yuri Schekochikhin’s death resumed |
| presidential administration’s security officials | Three Whales case may be resumed again |
The government announces the list of coordinating and deliberative services | Aleksey Kudrin | Alexander Zhukov (?) | Effect from Kudrin’s appointment as head of the WTO commission will be less than expected |
the government authorized State Fishery Committee clause | Andrei Krainy | Aleksey Gordeyev | Gordeyev will have to leave attempts to claim control of fishery |
Presidium of the National Projects Council held a conference | Dmitry Medvedev |
| The first vice prime minister will continue active work |
TV time distributed among parties | UR | JR | UR will dominate the TV |
Konstantin Tsitsin appointed head of the Housing Reform Fund | Dmitry Kozak |
| This appointment is a technical procedure that will not lead to any changes in the governmet |
Dmitry Ananyev elected chairman of the Federation Council’s Financial Markets and Money Circulation Committee | Sergei Mironov |
| Ananyev will be included into the Supervising Banking Council |
Volume: 16 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007