NESF / Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin : Issue No (46) 682

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (46) 682

November 5 – 12, 2007

Main political trends of the week

Last week discussions resumed of Vladimir Putin’s future job – one of the top United Russia’s members Sultygov proposed to establish a National Leader Institute for Vladimir Putin to become the head of. This was a trial run before starting discussions of establishing a post-Putin above-government form of power.

Although such proposition seems sassy in the current political context, there may be only several alternatives – the majority of other propositions may lead to Putin losing independency from other administrators.

Political players are trying to capitalize on the uncertainty. In particular, we see “official” candidates to replace Putin resuming their efforts to advertise themselves, although this is now happening significantly more sluggish than at the end of August beginning of September 2007. For the last two months the format of the competition between the successors has changed substantially. If earlier this year there were to contesters and one was trying to catch up with the other, now there are three and all have equal chances. In the mean time, the two first vice prime ministers begin to frequent television and press, showing acting in their “priority” sectors.

Power clans continue infighting for government positions to secure access to the power after new president will be elected. Particularly, the Head of Rosoboronexport Sergei Chemezov has successfully lobbied for the establishment of the Russian State Technology Corporation – at the end of last week respective draft passed the second and the third readings in the parliament. This organization de facto received the status of national innovation center. However, Chemezov failed to accomplish the maximum goal – give the corporation the status of the only government’s arms ordering customer.

The “security officials” clan has achieved success too. In particular, the position of deputy senior high bailiff was assumed by Vladimir Mulov – a former military prosecutor’s office employee. Most likely, he will become the successor of the head of the Federal Bailiff Service Nikolai Vinnichenko, who is believed to be Dmitry Medvedev’s disciple. The conflict around the Russian Federal Property Fund received continuation. This time the Head of the Fund Valery Bely proposed to dismiss proctors and entrust sale of confiscated goods directly to the Federal Property Fund.

Major events Nov 5, 2007 - Nov 12, 2007

Event	To whose benefit	To whose disadvantage	What to expect
United Russia’s head of national policy and interaction with religious organizations department Abdul-Khakim Sultygov published an article entitled “Russian National Leader Phenomenon” on the party’s website			Despite UR’s claim that its heads were not involved, discussion of the possibility for Putin to become national leader will continue.
State Duma authorized the Technology Corporation bill in the second and third readings.	Sergei Chemezov	Sergei Ivanov	The question of total control of arms purchases will remain open and spur another round of the turf war.
Vladimir Mulov appointed Deputy Chief Bailiff	Vladimir Ustinov	Nikolai Vinnichenko, Dmitry Medvedev	Mulov will likely replace Vinnichenko as chief baillif
Vladimir Putin signed a decree giving TRK Peterburg the status of a national broadcasting organization.	Yuri Kovalchuk		The merger of REN-TV and Peterburg that analysts predict will not happen
Maksim Bystrov appointed deputy minister of regional development	Herman Gref		Bystrov will be included into the Kozak’s team but will not cut connections with Gref
Vladimir Putin signed a decree allowing State Fishery Committee to open offices abroad	Andrei Krainy	Aleksey Gordeyev	It is quite possible that in the future the state committee will be transformed into a state corporation
Vladislav Surkov met with UR deputies			Candidates running for regional deputy seats should scale up their efforts
Vladimir Rushailo failed to become senator from Astrakhan Oblast	UR	Sergei Mironov	Most likely, second voting will allow Rushailo claim the position but later he will fall out of big politics
Vladimir Gusakov stepped down from deputy chief of the Federal Financial Market Service	Vladimir Milovidov		This move will give additional freedom for Milovidov to maneuver
TV broadcasting program for the period between 2008 and 2015 was approved.	Leonid Reiman	Gennady Sklyar	Sklyar’s FGUP RTRS will not attain monopoly on the transition of Russian television to digital streaming
Head of the Federal Property Fund Valery Bely proposed to dismiss proctors and entrust sale of confiscated goods directly to the Fund.	Federal Property Fund	FSSP, MVD	This idea will result in a draft law
Restoration of Government Staff Control Department	Viktor Zubkov		This service will be a watchdog but won’t have dispatching control function
The number of deputies of Regional Development Minister and Economic Development and Trade Minister was increased from 5 to 6	Dmitry Kozak, Elvira Nabiullina		Further moving away from the principles of the administrative reform will continue