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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (47) 683
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (47) 683
November 12 – 18, 2007
Main political trends of the week
The main question of the last week was again Vladimir Putin’s place after power in Russia shifts. However, the discussions have transformed into action - United Russia’s initiative was succeeded by “self-organized movement.” Last week a national organization to support Vladimir Putin reached the end of the first stage of establishment. The new political force is expected to become the incumbent president’s instrument to address publicity. The main question now is how will this movement be affiliated with the United Russia. If it is transformed into a party’s office, the idea to attract the voters, who are not willing to support United Russia, will lose meaning.
Another hot topic is the future of Putin’s relations with United Russia. It is quite possible that this subject was considered during the closed for media part of the meeting between the president and UR’s spokespersons last Saturday in Zavidovo (officially, UR’s top members and Putin discussed the results of State Duma’s work). At the meeting, Vladimir Putin said it was necessary to perfect UR’s platform, which proves that the role of ideology in Russian politics is increasing. Not only United Russia is trying to enhance its platform – last week top members of several “alternative” parties said they could resort to protest activities, and the “genuine” opposition is clearly drifting toward socio-economic rhetoric. The president might have also told the party’s heads that it is too early to bask in the sun after he headed parliament election ticket and urged them to work hard locally.
Uncertainty surrounding Transition-2008 project keeps elite clans on tenterhooks, which resulted last week in law enforcement raids. Detention of Deputy Finance Minister Sergei Storchak seriously damaged the image of PM (and possibly even presidential) contender Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin but more importantly this arrest was used to show how strong and effective the tandem of Investigation Committee and FSB was. Curiously, the detention almost coincided with MVD Chief Rashid Nurgaliyev’s effort to interpret progress in the investigation of the Nevsky Express case as his ministry’s merit. “Security officials” clan is boosting its influence. After a month-long hiatus, the Minister of Defense made new management reshuffles. “Chechen” General Vladimir Shamanov was appointed head of military training department. This move reveals Anatoly Serdyukov’s intention to prop against “war generals” rather than “office generals” and also lack of personnel in the ministry.
Major events Nov 12, 2007 - Nov 18, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vladimir Putin said that by choosing UR voters will choose him | UR | In the future administrative resource will be used again to make sure more people come to vote | |
| For Putin becomes a national public movement | A decision on affiliation with United Russia will be made after results of parliament race are announced | ||
| Vladimir Putin meets with UR top members in Zavidovo | UR | Deputy candidates may start active agitation locally | |
| Police detains Deputy Minister of Finance Sergei Storchak | Alexander Bastrykin, Nikolai Patrushev | Aleksey Kudrin | This event and its consequences will damage Aleksey Kudrin’s status |
| MVD Chief Rashid Nurgaliyev says Nevsky Express case is solved | Rashid Nurgaliyev | Nikolai Patrushev | Very likely Nurgaliyev will disavow his statement in the future |
| Viktor Zubkov embarks on a mission to the Azov Sea | Viktor Zubkov (?) | Zubkov will appear frequently in the media | |
| SPS Leader Nikita Belykh says his party will take part in the Dissenters’ March scheduled to 24 and 25 of November | SPS | Grigory Yavlinski | This move may boost the party’s popularity but at the same time increase its chances to be disqualified |
| Deputy Chairman of Yabloko Sergei Mitrokhin requested revision of the party’s election tactics and organization of protest rallies | Sergei Mirtokhin | Grigory Yavlinski | If Mirtokhin backs words with action, the party may split |
| Deputy Chairman of KPRF’s Central Committee Ivan Melnikov said it was possible that the communists would organize protest rallies | Ivan Melnikov | Gennady Zyuganov | Melnikov may be criticized by party adminsitrators |
| Vladimir Shamanov appointed head of defense ministry’s military training department | Anatoly Serdyukov | This will boost Serdyukov’s popularity among “war generals” | |
| The number of defense minister’s deputies is increased from 6 to 7 | Anatoly Serdyukov | Highly likely, a former Federal Tax Service officer will be appointed as new deputy minister | |
| Alexandra Levitskaya appointed deputy minister of economic development | Alexander Voloshin | Levitskaya will become the second person in the ministry after Nabiullina | |
| The government authorizes amendments to combat corporate raid | Vladimir Pligin, Viktor Pleskachevsky, Yelena Panina | Federal Property Fund, MVD | The bill will face serious obstacles in the new State Duma |
Volume: 16 pages
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World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007