 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (50) 686
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (50) 686
December 3 - 9, 2007
Main political trends of the week
A prologue to the presidential election, the parliament campaign continued the main subject of the last week. This time not the results that were little different from exit polls announced Sunday were important but their interpretation.
United Russia won constitutional majority in the State Duma, which makes the party the dominating force in the fifth Duma. Fears of some watchers that had predicted “undemocratic” two-party parliament did not come true. Finally, the general election proved that liberal parties are in crisis, their failure is a result of both deteriorating support from voters and inner splits. The key question that will be answered in the next couple of weeks is whether the president is happy with UR’s result.
Despite that opportunities to hand down power have shrunk to one option – pick a “successor” – certain interested groups do not leave attempts to influence on the president pushing for other projects. In particular, at the end of the last week radio station Echo of Moscow gave up a “leak” according to which Vladimir Putin allegedly planned to assume position of Russia-Belarus Union State’s president. We suggested this as one of possibilities about a year ago but had to put it away when it was clear that the Belarus president had a strictly negative position in this regard.
Continuing uncertainty about the future president is negatively influencing on domestic politics. Last week, conflicts inside elite community escalated and burst into media. The scandal around the interview of FinanceGroup Oleg Schwartzman to Kommersant is growing, which may have negative consequences for power’s stability. More to that, in case the infighting continues, the president may suffer damage as he is the only guarantor of consensus between elites and society in the modern Russia.
The “Storchak’s case” continues speeding up too. In particular, the General Prosecutor’s Office backed the head of Finance Ministry Aleksey Kudrin, who is opposed by the Investigation Committee-FSB alliance.
Major events Dec 3, 2007 - Dec 9, 2007
| Event | To whose benefit | To whose disadvantage | What to expect |
|---|---|---|---|
Parliament vote results calculated | UR, JR, LDPR | KPRF, SPS | Standoff between UR and JR for the right to be called “president’s party” will escalate |
request from Minister of Finance Aleksey Kudrin to release his deputy Sergei Storchak on bail declined. | Aleksey Kudrin | This defeat will have negative effect for Kudrin’s positions in the elite | |
the General Prosecutor’s Office canceled the second criminal case against Storchak instituted by the Investigation Committee | Aleksey Kudrin, Yuri Chaika | Alexander Bastrykin | The conflict will continue, highly likely GPO will cancel several other IC’s orders |
the president appointed former deputy head of FSB’s investigation committee Alexander Sorochkin as a new deputy chairman of the GPO’s Investigation Committee | Nikolai Patrushev, Kremlin’s siloviki clan | FSB-IC alliance will be cemented | |
leaders of Yabloko’s St. Petersburg branch announce plans to propose personnel and organizational changes in the party’s federal administration | Sergei Mitrokhin, Aleksey Navalny | Grigory Yavlinski | Yavlinski’s monopoly over strategic decisions will be destroyed |
KPRF heads put off protest rallies | Gennady Zyuganov | If the nation-wide rally takes place, it will be a purely formal protest | |
FinanceGroup Head Oleg Schwartzman denies in an interview to Echo of Moscow several statements published by Kommersant | The protracted scandal may damage the reputations of the players mentioned in the interview | ||
LDPR Leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky holds press conference | Vladimir Zhirinovsky | The initiatives he has announced will allow Zhirinovsky to expect charge of control over the separation of general and presidential elections’ dates | |
Minister of Culture Alexander Sokolov refuses to claim Duma mandate | Nikolai Levichev | Alexander Babakov | The conflict between Levichev and Babakov for the top party member status will escalate |
President Vladimir Putin signs decree increasing the number of the Federal Migration Service’s directorates from 14 to 16 | Konstantin Romodanovsky | Rashid Nurgaliyev | FMS may be detached as an independent service in the nearest future |
Mikhail Kasyanov’s initiative group nominates him as presidential candidate | Mikhail Kasyanov | Boris Nemtsov | Rightist and Kremlin-disloyal opposition will fail to agree on a single presidential candidate |
Volume: 17 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007