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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (7) 695

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (7) 695

February 4-10, 2008

Main political trends of the week

Last week the intrigue of the Russian presidential election campaign finally paled into insignificance. Public attention is focusing on the government reshuffle that has fueled political infighting.

The key event of the week was the speech of the incumbent president Vladimir Putin that sounded like instructions to his successor. Although we didn’t hear sensations, the speech contained important guidelines of the country’s development for the next 12 years. In particular, the president named transition from extensive to intensive development a main goal, for which one must develop “human capital.” Putin’s liberal initiatives in the domestic policy and economy spheres sharply contrasted with uncomplying foreign policy line, which is a part of the “liberal empire” ideology. However, we see this only as an outset of the main intrigue, the upshot of which will happen at the end of this week, on Friday. Comparison of Vladimir Putin’s and Dmitry Medvedev’s speeches will show the extent of independency the successor wants to have after election.

The imminent shakeup of the elite is the reason for spreading rumors of changes in the government. Although the majority of those rumors are far from reality, we can clearly see that social, finance-economic and security spheres of executive branch will be affected the most. One of the leaders of the “financiers” group is the Minister of Regional Development Dmitry Kozak. New leaders of the security group are yet to be revealed. In the mean time, it is almost definite now that the Ministry of Defense will be the least affected by reforms.

The elite are currently receiving controversial signals regarding their future. On the one hand, the published list of candidates for state companies’ boards of directors seems to show 100% succession. On the other, developing anti-corruption theme suggests that a thorough “purge” in the state machinery is being prepared.

Such uncertainty makes top elite clans open the ball and lobby for the most favorable reforms. In particular, last week several large-scale initiatives were announced – reform of investigation and law enforcement services. If this one is carried out according to the proposed scenario, the “Kremlin’s security officials” clan (or Kremlin’s siloviki) will win a great deal of power. However, the recent history of infighting tells us that a decision will not be made until May 2008 and that in the nearest time rival clans will propose their alternative scenarios to modernize this segment.

Major events Feb 4, 2008 - Feb 10, 2008

Event To whose benefit To whose disadvantage What to expect

Introduction of amendments in the State Duma to the investigation regulating legislation

Alexander Bastrykin, Kremlin’s siloviki

Yuri Chaika

These amendments will not be authorized until May 2008

Vladimir Putin says fight on corruption must be intensified

 

 

Using the fight on corruption pretext a large-scale “purge” in the government may be made

Viktor Zubkov and Elvira Nabiullina confirmed as potential members of the Gazprom’s board of directors

Viktor Zubkov, Elvira Nabiullina

 

Membership may serve as compensation to the both officials after their possible layoff

It is reported that EDTM may be reorganized

 

Elvira Nabiullina

It is highly likely that the ministry will be restructured

Reshuffle in State Duma administration

Boris Gryzlov

 

In the nearest time we expect more appointments of Gryzlov’s protégé to key Duma positions

Establishment of a UR’s competence council in the State Duma

Boris Gryzlov, Vladimir Pekhtin

 

This service will strengthen Gryzlov’s control of the faction

Semyon Levi appointed deputy minister of natural resources

Yuri Trutnev, Oleg Mitvol

Vladimir Kirillov

Lev will be holding expansion attempts of the new Rosprirodnadzor head

Rostekhnadzor and RUIE sign cooperation in environmental control

Konstantin Pulikovski

 

This agreement will not likely help Pulikovsky to block establishment of a unified environmental watchdog

HQ Chief Yuri Baluyevskiy’s name does not appear in the list of candidates for directors’ board members of several national security enterprises

Anatoly Serdyukov

Yuri Baluyevskiy

Baluyevskiy will not resign before early next year

Supreme Court confirms Central Elections Commission’s refusal to register Mikhail Kasyanov as presidential candidate

Mikhail Kasyanov

 

Kasyanov will continue attempts to contest CEC’s decision in international courts

It is informed that Sergei Chemezov asked Vladimir Putin to insert government-owned shares in airline companies into the Russian Technology Corporation

Sergei Chemezov

Viktor Ivanov

Possible Chemezov’s attack on Aeroflot will be defended

Volume: 16 pages


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Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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