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Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (17) 705
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (17) 705
April 14 - 20, 2008
Vladimir Putin continues building system of checks and balances
The main event last week was Vladimir Putin’s consent to head United Russia, which, although was quite expected, nevertheless changed the alignment of forces on the political field and served as the final confirmation of the outgoing president’s intention to retain instruments of influence on the situation in the country even after his leaves his current position. Formalized leadership in the ‘party of power’ will enable him to influence federal elites as well as regional elites, as almost all governors and mayors of major cities are members of the United Russia party. However, such strengthening of cooperation between Vladimir Putin and United Russia does not mean shift to the party based government: this is first of all not in the interests of the outgoing president.
Despite Vladimir Putin’s firm intention not to lose ground, his ‘successor’ also does not want to play the role of a ‘technical’ president. In particular, his meetings with representatives of the elite within the framework of the process of informal assumption of the office suggest that they are not of a protocol character only. At the same time the future president considers business that he favors as his key support in addition to the judicial brunch of power. It should be noted that the ‘successor’ also receives considerable support from many mass media sources that are controlled by his supporters. In particular, publications in some mass media are aimed at convincing middle and low level officials that the process of reorientation of the elites on the new president has begun and it will not stop.
Vladimir Putin’s decision to head United Russia has affected the positioning of the party, whose role as the conductor of his interests will substantially increase. This was evident in Boris Gryzlov’s speech at the congress that contained several new points, in particular the criticism of state corporations. In addition, the intention to transfer them from under control of the president to the parliament and to improve control of the State Duma over the expenditure of the Investment Fund resources was clearly shaped.
Despite the upcoming government reshuffle, staff struggle is not abating. It has become more virtual and latent. Amid the ‘calmed down’ security-related bloc, representatives of the second and third levels of government have become more active. Government agencies are the most energetic so far as their heads have been lobbying transformation of agencies into state committees.
Major events April 14 - April 20, 2008
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
Vladimir Putin’s consent to head United Russia | United Russia | Just Russia | The party’s ratings will go up slightly; its role in settling issues of personnel appointment on the middle level will grow substantially |
Vladimir Putin’s statement that in general hehas decided on the staff of the future government | Vladimir Putin | There will be some certainty on this issue only in early May, but this statement will somewhat decrease the intensity of internal struggle between the elites | |
Proposal by Federal Subsoil Resource Use Agency head Anatoly Ledovskikh to transform his agency into the state committee | Anatoly Ledovskikh | Yury Trutnev | Such reorganization is quite possible |
| Prime Minister Viktor Zubkov said governors were responsible for growth in prices | Viktor Zubkov, Alexey Kudrin | Government will officially stay away from fighting inflation, at least until formation of the new Cabinet | |
Deputy Minister of Economic Development and Trade Andrey Klepach said he did not see the necessity to prolong moratorium on growth in prices of foodstuffs | If Klepach’s statement provokes discontent of reference groups, the ministry’s top officials may distance themselves from it | ||
| Replacement of the top management of Olimpstroy state corporation | Dmitry Kozak, Alexander Tkachyov | Semyon Vainshtok | Influence of Dmitry Kozak and Alexander Tkachyov in state corporation will increase |
Government meeting devoted to initiatives of the Ministry of Regional Development | Dmitry Kozak | Kozak’s attempts to expand to the spheres of competence of the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade and the Finance Ministry will fail | |
Proposals by State Duma committee heads Vladimir Pligin and Sergey Popov to broaden authority of the Public Chamber on the regional level | Public Chamber | Ombudsman in the Russian Federation | These initiatives may be considered by the State Duma but only after Dmitry Medvedev’s inauguration |
| Protest action against police outrage in Moscow | Rashid Nurgaliyev | Campaign aimed at replacing the current Minister of Internal Affairs will continue | |
Publication of an article about possible marriage of Vladimir Putin and Alina Kabayeva in Moskovsky Korrespondent newspaper | Alexander Lebedev | After this incident Lebedev’s influence in Just Russia will come to nothing |
Volume: 17 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007