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Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 731

Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (43) 731

October 13 - 19, 2008

Main tendencies of political week

Last week the ruling tandem members kept showing their interchangeability and alternating media activity. Like a week before, at the beginning of last week Dmitry Medvedev took the lead in the media field and Vladimir Putin increased his informational presence by the end of the week. The president continued getting accustomed to the role of supreme commander-in-chief, which to a great extent was reflected in the media coverage of his participation in the Stability-2008 war games. At the same time both tandem members paid considerable attention to the economic situation. In particular, the head of state quite sharply expressed his discontent about high prices of aviation fuel.

Defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov declared last week about further development of military reforms. He indicated large-scale plans of changing the structure of the armed forces and decreasing the personnel, first of all the officer corps. According to the minister, it is planned to switch from the division-regiment to a brigade level system of the armed forces structure, which in general corresponds to modern requirements. Compared to divisions, brigades are more mobile and are capable of solving similar tasks in short-term modern conflicts. The second measure also seems justified but it may be opposed by generals. It fact this is similar to sending military specialists into retirement.

The vector and dynamics of the reshuffle in the government do not provide a clear answer to the question whether this is the beginning of the previously planned large-scale reform in the government or continuation of its fine-tuning. If the last week staff changes were fine-tuning they were of quite a large-scale character. From the point of view of the first variant, they were too specific and did not affect the structure of inside-government interaction.

Dmitry Kozak’s promotion to Olympic deputy PM is unlikely to mean weakening of his positions. This is likely to be Vladimir Putin’s desire to use the big guns, because the pace of preparations for this event leaves much to be desired. The appointment of Russia’s former Ambassador to Uzbekistan, Farit Mukhametshin, chief of the federal agency for CIS affairs does not seem unambiguous. In general, considering previous leakages, foreign minister Sergey Lavrov may be considered beneficiary of this HR decision having a predictable officer from the diplomatic community as head of the agency. However, the new appointment exposes another interesting tendency. Besides diplomatic or similar service, the official had another job in his career: in the late 1990s he represented the Republic of Tatarstan’s interests in Moscow. The recently appointed regional development minister Viktor Basargin is also from the Urals. Thus, one may suppose that a new wave of recruitment of elites not bound with Moscow or St. Petersburg but with the Urals and Volga region, into the government is beginning.

Major events October 13 - October 19, 2008

Event Winning side Defeated side Development Outlooks

Dmitry Medvedev delivers a speech at a joint meeting of the president’s council for sports and the state council

Dmitry Medvedev

 

President’s instructions will be blocked in bureaucratic procedures

Dmitry Kozak is appointed deputy PM and Viktor Basargin is appointed regional development minister

Dmitry Kozak, Sergey Sobyanin

 

SC Olimpstroy head Viktor Kolodyazhny may resign and Oleg Deripaska may become more active

Defense minister Anatoly Serdyukov declares parameters of military reforms

Anatoly Serdyukov

 

Discontent among officers of the armed forces may increase

Dmitry Medvedev criticizes high prices of aviation fuel

Dmitry Medvedev

Sergey Ivanov

The anti-monopoly service is likely to make additional efforts to decrease the prices

Information about variants of possible employment of Oleg Mitvol is posted

Vladimir Kirillov

Oleg Mitvol

After this information has become public, the chances to implement such variants will decrease

Farit Mukhametshin is appointed chief of the federal agency for CIS affairs

Sergey Lavrov

 

Noticeable administrative conflicts between the minister and the agency chief are unlikely to happen

The parole appeal of Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s defense is rejected

 

Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Certiorari is also likely to be denied

Yevgeny Bachurin, head of the Federal Air Transportation Agency, replaced by Gennady Kurzenkov, ex-head of the Federal Transportation Inspection Service

Igor Levitin

Viktor Ivanov

This resignation was expected long ago and it has only formalized the real situation

Arrest of former head of the main investigation department of the Investigation Committee, Dmitry Dovgy, is prolonged

Alexander Bastrykin

 

Yury Chaika will stop supporting the arrested official

Discussions in the Federation Council devoted to issues of fighting corruption

FSB, MVD

 

Heads of law enforcement agencies will continue lobbying increase in the role of their organizations in this campaign

Volume: 16 pages

 

 


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Analytical series “The Political compass”:

Political power in Russia after presidential election
State Corporations in the Russian Economy
Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008

All reports for: 2009 , 2008 , 2007

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