 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
Main page > Products > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts - The weekly bulletin > Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (46) 787
Politics in Russia: power, lobby, conflicts. Issue No (46) 787
November 09 - 15, 2009
Main tendencies of political week
Promulgation of Dmitry Medvedev’s state of the nation address became the major event of last week and of the political season in general. On one side, the document was more concrete than last year’s document devoted mainly to values. On the other side, the latest address has tactical tasks (macroeconomic issues at the beginning of the speech) balanced by strategic ones (creation of preconditions for the emergence of the innovative social environment). Initiatives in the cultural, educational and political spheres are mostly strategic, including inter alia the Our New School project. The president’s remark that “the strengthening of democracy does not mean the weakening of law and order” should be singled out – this was a final response to assumptions that the president would recognize the October 11 elections as “wrong” and would critically evaluate the Russian election and party system.
Changes in the format of drafting the document also influenced the chronological framework of interpretations in the media. Previously interpretations were voiced only post factum but this time they were made in the form of forecasts and wishes. Liberals hoped for the easing of political “restrictions”, businessmen counted on changes in taxation. The closer the day of the address’s promulgation, the higher the pressure on the president urging him to conduct independent policies was.
The initial reaction to the presidential address that some part of the liberal camp was disappointed with contained mostly reproaches for its lack of clarity and most importantly the lack of a regal style. At the same time, it was not taken into account that state authorities were changing stylistics having proclaimed the course at non-violent modernization. Thus, the reference to periods of Russia’s history connected to forced modernization (the rule of Peter the Great and Joseph Stalin) was methodologically wrong.
Attempts to pressurize the ruling tandem through other channels did not stop. The media campaign launched with the posting of a video message by police major Alexey Dymovsky has a strategic objective to test the tandem’s strength. If Dmitry Medvedev dismisses the interior minister, this will be interpreted as the beginning of a serious reshuffle and the takeover of levers of governance from Putin by Medvedev, which may disorient elites. At the same time, the interior ministry is a “weak link” of the governance system causing serious complaints of citizens. Thus, the tandem is facing a hard choice – either possible variant may lead to substantial risks.
Major events November 09 - 15, 2009
| Event | Winning side | Defeated side | Development Outlooks |
|---|---|---|---|
| President posts his state of the nation address | Dmitry Medvedev | State corporations, JR, LDPR, CPRF | Political players will struggle for launching implementation of presidential instructions |
| PM Vladimir Putin visits Muz-TV channel | Vladimir Putin | PM will keep making non-standard image moves to increase his public support rating | |
| Constitutional Court starts considering prolongation of the death penalty moratorium | State Duma | CC will prolong the moratorium for an indefinite period | |
| A press conference by former police mayor Alexey Dymovsky in Moscow | Rashid Nurgaliyev | The campaign on pressurizing state authorities will continue | |
| Forbes posts the rating of the world’s most influential people | Igor Sechin | There will be attempts to provoke a conflict between Dmitry Medvedev and Vladimir Putin’s closest companions to split the tandem | |
| Federal drug control service general Alexander Bulbov is released from custody | Viktor Cherkesov | Alexander Bastrykin | Old elite conflicts will finish with informal amicable agreements |
| Higher Qualification Panel of Judges recommends Inna Vorobyova to be appointed chair of the 10th Arbitration Court of Appeal | Anton Ivanov | The president’s team will continue its expansion in the judicial branch | |
| Konstantin Protopopov is appointed deputy head of Roskomnadzor | Sergey Sobyanin | Sergey Sobyanin will keep promoting people loyal to him | |
| State Duma deputies suggest making Rostekhnadzor subordinate directly to the Cabinet and assigning new functions to it | Nikolay Kutyin, Sergey Shmatko | Yury Trutnev | It is highly probable that this initiative will be accomplished |
Volume: 14 pages
Other issues:
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Political compass”:
Political power in Russia after presidential election
The new report analyzes the situation which followed «reformatting» of the political system in Russia within the «Successor» operation. Currently the new management structure and inter-elite situation have been formed aggressively in view of the existing model of «Putin-Medvedev» duumvirate.State Corporations in the Russian Economy
The new study analyses state corporations that many consider a new long-term direction of Russian economy development. Currently, these corporations are becoming nearly the main mechanism for Russian elite to convert and cash out political power. Therefore it is important to understand affiliation of different state corporations with dominating political players, their role in the 2008 election campaign and place in the next executive power configuration that we will see completed by spring-summer 2008. It is also interesting to analyze possible ways the state corporations may transform into other forms of property in the nearest and medium-term future.Political Results of 2007: Russia on the Eve of Power Shuffle
The new study analyzes political and socio-economic state of Russia after Duma election on December 2 2007 and possible consequences of power shuffle in March-May 2008.Political Landscape Ahead of the Parliamentary Election 2007
The research studies the strategies of the main players racing for parliament, assesses their potential, and gives a prediction of how events will be developing.«Centers of influence» in the Russian politics
The study attempts to list the main centers of influence and show their hierarchy from the standpoint of availability of resources. Special attention is drawn to formal and informal channels of interaction between elite clans, the “conflict zones,” and the clans’ methods of promoting their interests. The study also attempts to predict developments in the short- and medium-term future.Leading Russian corporations and the executive power: interaction methods
The new study analyzes the methods of interaction between the executive power and the leading Russian businesses both when they carry out «pinpoint» projects and implement strategic partnership.Forecast of political developments after the presidential election in 2008
The new study contains thorough analysis of the possible scenarios of power succession in 2008 and a forecast of how events may develop.
National Energy Security Fund © 2007