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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2022

Russian Oil and Gas Sector
During Economic War with West
—2022

The National Energy Security Fund announces its traditional series of analysis reports dedicated to the central issues of Russian fuel and energy sector development.

The year 2022 has been special, including for the Russian fuel and energy sector which has come to be in the centre of many geopolitical whirlwinds.

As a result, for the first time in the history of the publication of the NESF series of expert reports (which dates back 15 years now) we had to alter fairly seriously the subject matter of the reports after the calendar year had already begun. And when the first report was already being prepared for publication.

The events of 24 February 2022 disrupted our plans. Originally we wanted to put emphasis on how new energy realities manifest themselves in Russia: how rapidly the green agenda and the subject of energy transition rushed into the Russian fuel and energy sector. Now, however, everything has changed again, radically. Here is but one example: it seemed (and there was every reason for that) at the end of 2021 that discussion of the introduction of the CBAM mechanism would be one of the key topics in 2022. It was expected to make serious changes to trade between Russia and the EU. But now it is a big question what size this trade will even be in 2026 (it is then that the CBAM mechanism was supposed to go into operation). So the agenda has come to be rewritten again.

What implications the Western policy of dramatic reduction of the presence of hydrocarbons from Russia on the global market will have for the Russian oil and gas sector and for global energy, has come to the foreground.

The series, as usual, consists of eight reports to be published in March 2022 through February 2023.

1. Russian Oil Exports: from Covid-induced Demand Collapse to Sanctions War

(May 10, 2022)

The report was finished at the very beginning of the special military operation (SMO). Therefore, it contains detailed results of 2021 presenting in-depth analysis of Russian oil exports. Also, it makes the first evaluation of the imposed sanctions showing what mechanisms Russia has to redirect its oil to other markets.

The study tells how much and to whom Russia exports oil by pipeline and by sea. What main competitors there are for its key export blends. What changes the trade primarily in Urals crude underwent right after 24 February. Who will be able to substitute for Russia in the European market and what prospects Russia has on the oil market in Asia.

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2. Hydrogen Agenda in Russia during Economic War with West

(August 9, 2022)

The hydrogen report was conceived in a period when hydrogen was turning into a dominant subject as the future development of Russian energy was discussed. The SMO introduced serious changes to the “hydrogen hype” too. Hopes were destroyed both for technology imports and for possible supplies to the countries of the “collective West” that have been put into the unfriendly category.

However, the subject of hydrogen is by no means dead. The Cabinet is not removing hydrogen production from the agenda. Supporters of the export strategy assure that China’s market will be quite enough. Other lobbyists argue that reliance must be on developing domestic consumption and that new demand must be created, if virtually from scratch. After all, hydrogen is an opportunity to obtain and distribute government subsidies. This is also of interest to quite a few corporations that keep on defending hydrogen too.

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3. Guide to European Sanctions against Russian Oil and Gas Business

(October 2, 2022)

Sanctions and their implications are the obvious “dominant” of 2022. Radical transformation of the global hydrocarbons market has begun.

Sanctions against Russia are a real earthquake that affects every major exporter and importer of oil and natural gas.

We offer what is actually a “two-volume” report. The first part is detailed analysis of the sanctions of the United Kingdom and EU (it is Europe that is the main market for Russian hydrocarbons). You will find in the report detailed presentation of legal subjects, the enforcement practice, and the first reaction of Russian companies to measures taken by European regulators.

The focus is not only on the sanctions imposed immediately on Russian oil and gas. It is also on the sanctions striking at Russia’s financial system and logistics, which directly concerns trade in hydrocarbons too. As for detailed analysis of Russia’s response measures as it is looking for new export channels, it will be offered in autumn.

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4. Arctic Projects during Energy Pivot to East

(December 20, 2022)

It is already a tradition that between a “legal” and a “strategic” report there comes analysis of the situation with Arctic projects. This year the latter have put on a special colour too.

Now a dash to the East is perhaps the only possible export strategy. But are we ready for a race to the East? What awaits the Northern Sea Route under the circumstances of technological sanctions? Is there something to carry along the NSR; who and what will carry it? Who will substitute for investors pulling out and what change is the Arctic projects management system undergoing?

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5. ‘Green Agenda’ in Russia in New Political Epoch

(November 11, 2022)

The subject of energy transition is also undergoing serious transformation.

The government is thinking primarily about how to support producers of conventional energy resources. However, lobbyists for the “green agenda” and renewable energy are not sitting on their hands either. They assure that the “green revolution” remains the global mainstream which Russia will not be able to ignore even in the new political reality and that matters of climate will be important in trade with China.

The report will tell about the main bureaucratic supervisors of the green agenda, about the prospects of introduction of a carbon charge in Russia, and the progress of the experiment on Sakhalin. It will also give a classification of green lobbyists: fighters for state subsidies for renewable energy and electric cars, promoters of the waste recycling programme and of forest climate projects, and supporters of development of green lending. What prospects their efforts have, will be shown.

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6. Russian Oil Sector under Sanctions Pressure: Lessons of Survival

(February 6, 2023)

After describing in summer the sanctions imposed by Europe, in autumn we will analyse the first results of the “great relocation of Russian oil”: how efficient the banishment from Europe has proved, whether Russian oil has found its place in Asia, and what is happening to oil production and refining after the introduction of technological sanctions and withdrawal of Western partners.

The report will tell about the formation of new trade infrastructure: alternative trading schemes, new logistics, solutions to insurance problems. The new pricing policy and prospects for a price-capping mechanism on Russian oil will be analysed.

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7. Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe

(March 6, 2023)

Following oil, the situation on the natural gas “front” also needs to be analysed. To an attempt at banishment from the European market Moscow has responded by somewhat “drying up” European consumption. This has led to growing chaos in the EU and unheard-of prices.

How will Europe live through the next winter and will its plan work? What actual alternatives has the EU to Russian gas supplies? Will Gazprom find an alternative to supplies to the West? Is there a medium-term future for gas trade between the EU and Russia? Or has the point of no return already been passed and the only question is how Europe will live through the next few heating seasons?

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8. Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023

(February 1, 2023)

It is our tradition to finish the series with a concluding report that sums up the main events and trends of the year. You will find in the report analysis of interim production results, main government decisions on the sector, key structural and staff changes in regulatory agencies.

In the report we will summarise whether senior Russian government officials have been able to find responses to the tough measures that have been introduced against Russian oil and gas; whether the main principles for regulating the industry have changed; and what awaits the Russian fuel and energy sector in the near future.

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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Green and Climate Agenda: Reset Attempt
Government 2024: New Configuration of Regulators
Lithium: New Energy Eldorado?
West’s Latest Sanctions Decisions, Their Effect on Russian Oil and Gas Industry
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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