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Main page > Books > Russia 2008. Report on Transformation Russia 2008. Report on TransformationCollective work edited by Konstantin Simonov, V EUROPE – RUSSIA FORUM
IntroductionIn 2008, Russia passed several serious tests, and that was just the first stage of testing for “survival” of the political system created in the recent years. Despite the forecasts predicting that after power structures “reformatting” and the election of Dmitri Medvedev as the President of Russia, the country will experience political “thaw”, regime liberalization and will return to “western-oriented” course like it used to be in Yeltsin’s time – nothing of that has eventually become the truth. To a considerable extent, this stems from the fact that both “internal” and “external” opponents of the existing political system underestimated several circumstances, which fostered the “continuity” of the political course. These include:
As a result, the problems of 2008 were in general successfully resolved and the authorities have demonstrated their significant robustness. The arguments in support of this conclusion are the following: for the first time in post-Soviet Russia’s history the elections were conducted in time and in “non-agitated” atmosphere. The resigning head of the state has clearly denoted his place in the power structure and in whole the transition of presidential powers from Vladimir Putin to Dmitri Medvedev was smooth. Other noteworthy facts include the “harmonic” in many respects operation of the “tandem”; well-coordinated operation of the state and social institutions according to their functions; quick victory over Georgia and the recognition of Abkhazia’s and South Ossetia’s independence; dedicated (although not always efficient) struggle against the negative consequences of global financial and economic crisis. Also, the top authorities assisted in establishing several “stabilizing” political and economic “non-aggression” pacts. It is especially worth noting that in “big politics” the role of the “personal factor” has declined, the apparatus functions distribution has become more logical and the role of power institutions has dramatically increased. Consequently, in 2008 (at least before the crisis) Russia played as equal with “heavy-weight” opponents (the West) and some “lighter” opponents (Georgia, irreconcilable opposition) were defeated with overwhelming advantage. 2008 financial and economic crisis did not shake the foundation of the established political system. The authorities have demonstrated courageous and original responses to emerging problems. As far as the Russian historical background is considered, the obvious conclusion is that in “emergency” situations the leadership of the country used to make choice in favour of the “mobilization scenario” with “the crackdown” on freedoms and the “iron hand” regime. Nonetheless, Putin-Medvedev “tandem”, relying on the stability and steadfastness of the system and also on the high degree of trust of population to the governmental institutions, made choice in favour of the “agreement scenario”. So, at the end of the year (in the Presidential Address, in Vladimir Putin’s “hot line” on TV, in some initiatives of the “United Russia”) the strategy of “balanced trust” was presented, which suggests abandoning the rigid monologue style of authorities communication in favour of multilateral dialogue and mutual trust with the purpose to consolidate internal and external forces for successful overcoming of local and global challenges of the 21st century. Russian leaders identify the following most important global challenges:
The strategy of balanced trust in Russia was assumed to help to respond to following challenges:
Nevertheless, aggravation of financial and economic crisis, which has started in the first part of 2008, can compromise this strategy, either adding to it some elements of “mobilization scenario” or leading to the system disintegration.
ConclusionThe outcome of 2008 events could become decisive on account of the “Putin’s period” statehood transformation, which was based on the ideas of national consensus, “purchasing” of political and social loyalty and accomplishment of the large-scale and expensive political and business projects. While financial and economic crisis is unfolding, two differently directed vectors in Russian authorities’ activity are envisioned. On the one hand, in the situation characterized by increasing “centrifugal” tendencies, growing protest activities and elite’s fragmentation, the ruling “tandem” will be tempted to “turn of the screw” one more time and to introduce “mobilization regime” by means of tough power policy and strict governmental regulation of economic processes. On the other hand, the probability of enacting of this scenario is low, as according to psychological and managerial characteristics of both members of the “tandem”, they are not the advocates of the rigid political, social and all the more so – economic mobilization. Moreover, they understand that tough authorities’ actions could provoke radical popular attitudes, which could undermine the legitimacy of their regime. The “mobilization scenario” would also require breaking up sharply Russia’s relations with the West and lead to the autarchy. However, the overwhelming majority of members of the Russian elites are the strong supporters of the Russian Federation’s participation in the “global joint-stock corporation”, so they do not even consider resignation from the “global board of directors” and creation of “completely independent business”. The opposite tendency is related to the “decentralization” policy and getting over the crisis by means of liberalization, of course, more limited than in 1990s, but still assuming less strict governmental control in the “adjacent spheres” (including business), imitation of competition, political discussions on possible development trajectories for the country, and consolidation of “West-oriented” tendencies in foreign policy. Nevertheless, from the point of view of RF elites, this scenario is extremely risky. The majority of the members of “ruling team” used to be CPSU member and they remember very well how quickly that party, which used to be the “directing and ruling force of Soviet society”, “deflated” in the end of 1980s and the beginning of 1990s, because it proved to be impossible to manage the process of the “top-down liberalization” in the crisis situation. Staking on the expansion of collaboration with the West seems to be a doubtful strategy for Russian establishment, especially for top officials. As it was demonstrated in reality, the USA and their allies prefer supporting only those regimes, which are unconditionally loyal to them, but the “duumvirate” members, who are too infatuated by the idea of “sovereign democracy”, are not perceived by European and American elites as “unambiguously loyal allies”. That is why Russian authorities will most probably choose in 2009 “wait-and-see tactic” based on the desire to “survive” the crisis with minimal losses, manoeuvring between “mobilization” and “liberal” scenarios. This approach could be relatively efficient if the crisis turns to be short-term and not too severe. Nonetheless, if it is deep and long-term, the ruling “tandem” will face the cardinal problem of choosing new “historical meaning” and new development strategy for the Russian Federation. |
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