2009: Ray of Hope
- Decline of consumption because of economic crisis
- Shale Gas
- New LNG projects
- Development of renewables
- Iraq
But Vain Hope?
- Decline of production on main world brawnfields
- Serious need in new investment
- Increasing of consumption in Asia
- Shale gas boom is only in USA
- Renewables is still more expansive then fossil fuel ( bankruptcy of some ethanol producers in Brazil)
- Energy efficiency is only a Keynesian project
- Political risks in Iraq, Iran, Africa, Latin America
Short Term Respite
- Three main reasons for future “energy starvation”
- Population growth
- Reducing of investment to upstream in turning-point - when there is a special need in its increasing
- Toughening of environmental challenges
World of Upstream and World of Downstream
Oil: Consumption Top-20 Oil. Proved Reserves. Top-20.
0,6% Azerbaijan 0,6% Norway 0.9% Mexico 1% Algeria 1% Brasil 1.1% Angola 1.2% China 2.2% Qatar 2,3% Canada 2,4% US 2.9% Nigeria 3.2% Kazakhstan 3.5% Libya 6.3% Russian Federation 7.8% United Arab Emirates 7.9% Venezuela 8,1% Kuwait 9,0% Iraq 10.9% Iran 21% Saudi Arabia
1,1% 0,4% Belgium & Luxembourg 20 1,2% 0,8% Netherlands 19 1,3% 5,0% Singapore 18 1,3% -4,8% Taiwan 17 2,0% -2,5% Spain 16 2,0% -1,0% United Kingdom 15 2,1% -3,9% Italy 14 2,1% 2,1% Iran 13 2,3% 0,5% Mexico 12 2,3% 0,7% France 11 2,6% -1,0% Canada 10 2,6% -4,9% South Korea 9 2,7% 8,1% Saudi Arabia 8 2,7% 5,3% Brazil 7 3,0% 4,9% Germany 6 3,3% 3,1% Russian Federation 5 3,4% 4,8% India 4 5,6% -3,5% Japan 3 9,6% 3,3% China 2 22,5% -6,4% US 1
Natural gas: Consumption. Top-20. Natural gas: Proved Reserves. Top-20.
1.2% Egypt 17 1.3% Indonesia 16 1.3% China 15 1.4% Australia 14 1.6% Norway 13 1.7% Iraq 12 1.7% Indonesia 11 2.4% Algeria 10 2.6% Venezuela 9 2.8% Nigeria 8 3.5% United Arab Emirates 7 3.5% US 6 4.1% Saudi Arabia 5 4.3% Turkmenistan 4 13.8% Qatar 3 16% Iran 2 23.4% Russian Federation 1
1,3% 2,8% South Korea 17 1,4% 3,0% India 16 1,5% 3,7% France 15 1,5% 1,0% Argentina 14 1,6% 5,9% Uzbekistan 13 2,0% -5,0% Ukraine 12 2,2% 6,2% Mexico 11 2,6% -0,4% Italy 10 2,6% 4,7% Saudi Arabia 9 2,7% 15,8% China 8 2,7% -1,3% Germany 7 3,1% 3,6% Japan 6 3,1% 3,0% United Kingdom 5 3,3% 3,2% Canada 4 3,9% 3,8% Iran 3 13,9% -1,6% Russian Federation 2 22,0% 0,6% US 1
Source: BP energy Outlook 2009
Russian Gas Export to Europe as Example of Quick Changes
-11,68% 19,72% -38,93% All 15,92% -8,50% 110% U.K. 14,02% 14,88% 19,30% Poland -3,30% 18,70% -40,30% France -14,70% -0,66% -51,47% Italy -16,24% -13,37% -31,53% Turkey -12,65% 64,25% -50,49% Germany 2009 4Q, 2009 1Q, 2009
Source: Gazprom
Asia as a Driver of Energy Consumption
- World primary consumption grew by 1.4% in 2008, the slowest growth since 2001
- But the Asian-Pacific region accounted for 87% of the world’s energy consumption growth. China accounted for nearly three quarter of global growth
- Non-OECD primary energy consumption exceed OECD consumption for the
- first time!
“ Crusade” for Recourses
- Decline of oil and gas production in Europe
- ONGC wants to invest $25-30bn to upstream projects overseas
- China gave $25bn only to Russia to build oil pipeline
Battlefields
- Russia: Europe wants to limit Russian Export. The answer of Russia is an attempt to increase export to China. In situation of non growing production it can be dangerous scenario for both sides
- Central Asia
- Iran
- Africa