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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2007

Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2007

The NESF presents a series of analytical reports devoted to development problems of Russian oil and gas complex, mechanism of  decision-making process in Russian policy, situation in key institutes of executive authority, redistribution processes within powerfu authorities. 

Our subscribers have an opportunity to be deeply informed on  situation in Russian oil and gas complex and development strategies of connected with it oil, gas and electric power industies.

All materials and sources used for issuing the reports are thoroughly verified and analysed by our experts. The information of NESF is based on industry statistics, data of oil and gas companies, information of federal and regional mass-media, materials of conferences and round tables.

The series consists of 8 reports which are issued within  February-December 2007

 

1. Development Strategies of the Russian Oil and Gas Companies – Before and After «Big Elections»

(Murch 9, 2007 )

The report studies 2006 outcomes for oil and gas companies, their achievements and failures in the economic sphere.

The process of president elections can initiate a new stage of asserts redistribution in the industry – the author explains what the companies’ strategy will be - strategy of development or survival?

What are companies’ plans of expanding their resources bases? What are their upstream and downstream policies and directions of external expansion? Are their investment projects realistic? Analysis of assets designated for acquisition.

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2. Pipeline Wars and New Routs of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia

(April 23, 2007)

Russia announces extensive and numerous pipelines construction projects both to Europe and South-Eastern Asia. The aim is to provide conditions for supply increase to existing and new markets. But which of these projects are going to be implemented and which are of only declarative character?

The report provides a detailed study of «pipeline attack» on Europe: the project of the North-European gas pipeline and Blue stream 2, problems of Ukrainian and Byelorussian transits, feasibility of construction of «West» and «East» gas pipelines to Asia as well as West-Siberian oil pipeline. The study unveils political reasons of constant changes of pipelines routs from Russia as well as competing East and West export routes and energy supply projects from alternative regions.

Attack of «paper tigers»: Nabucco gas pipelines, Kazakhstan-China and Uzbekistan-China lines as a chance to put pressure on Russia. Expansion of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines as a reflection of the ongoing competition with Caspian and Central Asia countries. Prospects of Caspian Pipeline Consortium and expansion of hydrocarbons export from Central Asia through the Russian territories.

New pipelines are studied in the context of both political risks and problem of resource bases and project cost. A topic in its own right – prospects of LNG supplies from Russia.

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3. Gazprom: are there Limits to Growth?

(May 28, 2007)

With Gazprom rapidly becoming the most expensive energy company in the world by accumulating new resources and taking over new assets, and intensifying its expansion in Europe, the burning topic remains the problem of the effective management of the company, competition of different groups inside of the corporation, which have different views on the company development strategy.

The problem of the gas shortage in fulfilling long-term contracts and meeting domestic supply is becoming a more and more difficult to solve.

On the one hand, Gazprom works to decrease domestic gas consumption on the other hand it has to continue gasification projects because of the forthcoming elections. Taking this into consideration the key factor for Gazprom is to expand supplies from Central Asia.

The report studies the achievements and failures of Gazprom in its attempts to control gas transportation system of the CIS and expansion into Europe.

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4. «The Big Trade» - Russian Companies Struggling for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies – for Upstream Ones

(July 2, 2007)

Foreign companies have experienced a sharp increase of pressure on them with the approach of the elections.

The terms of work of nonresident companies in Russia are being changed dramatically. The companies are to give away their control shares in all upstream projects like it is happening with Sakhalin and Kovykta projects.  It is not money that the Russian national companies are interested in. It is a large-scale assets exchange that they try to make their foreign partners agree on and that is the major task of an «energy superpower».

The report provides analysis of changes in operation rules for foreign companies and possible ways to win in this situation.

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5. Oil and Gas Complex and Putin’s Energy Project

(August 6, 2007)

The main task of Putin before the elections is to minimize risks of changing his political status after the elections by means of accumulating significant energy resources.

In the past few years Putin has been persistent in realizing his real energy strategy which is not announced in any official document:

  • building an energy company of world status by means of state-owned assets exchange for shares in downstream and transportation projects abroad
  • expanding the system of Russian hydrocarbons export
  • changing the rules of the game on the post-Soviet areas
  • creating favorable conditions for M&A.

When hiring former European politicians Putin understands that the ability to control significant economic assets is the most important for his «life after the presidency». Creating a company of the world level means becoming a member of the world elite. But on the other hand, it is important to exclude risks of repeating the situation like one happened to Yeltsin and «his family» when they rapidly lost both their power and properties. 

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6. Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors

(October 8, 2007)

Election campaigns are coming to a head in Russia. But the real struggle is going on among the two real forces which are “Saint-Petersburg siloviki” and “Saint-Petersburg liberals”. The struggle for the oil and gas assets is a real «political fundraising» for them in the attempt to support their candidates to Putin’s successor.

At present President Putin holds to September a principle of sharing the control over the oil and gas complex between different nomenclature-political groups. And in the long run we will see two candidates – «gas candidate» and «oil candidate». Besides, President Putin is to solve the problem of preventing the process of the assets redistribution that might be started after him resigning. At the same time the task for his potential successors is to save their oil and gas resources in case of defeat in elections.

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7. Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES of Russia and New Gas and Electricity Pricing System

(November 12, 2007)

The outcomes of the energy reform can differ dramatically from expected.

While its initial task is to ensure competition between electricity producers, in practice, it can result in merging of the two energy monopolies. Gazprom has been very active buying energy generating assets that is in accordance with the strategy of the gas concern to become an energy company announced  by Alexei Miller.

The major energy resources producer is acquiring a power company which can result in further market monopolization and significant price increase. Basically, struggling together for the tariffs increase is one of the reasons of the possible scenario. With the situation of sharp gas shortage Gazprom has no options. However, this process coincides with the beginning of the elections which makes impossible inflation decrease and threatens industrial development. 

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8. Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008

(December 27, 2007)

The report analyses whether President Putin and the key elite groups have managed to achieve the main goals in the sphere of controlling the companies of the oil and gas industry in 2007.

It studies:

  • the outcomes of the assets redistribution process in the oil and gas
  • struggle of nomenclature-political groups for control over the key industry’s assets
  • struggle between Gazprom and Rosneft to dominate in the industry
  • changes in state decision-making in the oil and gas, and key staff shifts

The paper covers changes in taxation system and rules of working of foreign companies. The study also represents macro-economic results of the year for the industry with detailed statistics.

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If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Asia market: potential of Russian oil and gas exports to the East
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
Main regulators of oil and gas battles

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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