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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2007
The NESF presents a series of analytical reports devoted to development problems of Russian oil and gas complex, mechanism of decision-making process in Russian policy, situation in key institutes of executive authority, redistribution processes within powerfu authorities.
Our subscribers have an opportunity to be deeply informed on situation in Russian oil and gas complex and development strategies of connected with it oil, gas and electric power industies.
All materials and sources used for issuing the reports are thoroughly verified and analysed by our experts. The information of NESF is based on industry statistics, data of oil and gas companies, information of federal and regional mass-media, materials of conferences and round tables.
The series consists of 8 reports which are issued within February-December 2007
1. Development Strategies of the Russian Oil and Gas Companies – Before and After «Big Elections»
(Murch 9, 2007 )
The report studies 2006 outcomes for oil and gas companies, their achievements and failures in the economic sphere.
The process of president elections can initiate a new stage of asserts redistribution in the industry – the author explains what the companies’ strategy will be - strategy of development or survival?
What are companies’ plans of expanding their resources bases? What are their upstream and downstream policies and directions of external expansion? Are their investment projects realistic? Analysis of assets designated for acquisition.
2. Pipeline Wars and New Routs of Hydrocarbons Transportation from Russia
(April 23, 2007)
Russia announces extensive and numerous pipelines construction projects both to Europe and South-Eastern Asia. The aim is to provide conditions for supply increase to existing and new markets. But which of these projects are going to be implemented and which are of only declarative character?
The report provides a detailed study of «pipeline attack» on Europe: the project of the North-European gas pipeline and Blue stream 2, problems of Ukrainian and Byelorussian transits, feasibility of construction of «West» and «East» gas pipelines to Asia as well as West-Siberian oil pipeline. The study unveils political reasons of constant changes of pipelines routs from Russia as well as competing East and West export routes and energy supply projects from alternative regions.
Attack of «paper tigers»: Nabucco gas pipelines, Kazakhstan-China and Uzbekistan-China lines as a chance to put pressure on Russia. Expansion of Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan and Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum pipelines as a reflection of the ongoing competition with Caspian and Central Asia countries. Prospects of Caspian Pipeline Consortium and expansion of hydrocarbons export from Central Asia through the Russian territories.
New pipelines are studied in the context of both political risks and problem of resource bases and project cost. A topic in its own right – prospects of LNG supplies from Russia.
3. Gazprom: are there Limits to Growth?
(May 28, 2007)
With Gazprom rapidly becoming the most expensive energy company in the world by accumulating new resources and taking over new assets, and intensifying its expansion in Europe, the burning topic remains the problem of the effective management of the company, competition of different groups inside of the corporation, which have different views on the company development strategy.
The problem of the gas shortage in fulfilling long-term contracts and meeting domestic supply is becoming a more and more difficult to solve.
On the one hand, Gazprom works to decrease domestic gas consumption on the other hand it has to continue gasification projects because of the forthcoming elections. Taking this into consideration the key factor for Gazprom is to expand supplies from Central Asia.
The report studies the achievements and failures of Gazprom in its attempts to control gas transportation system of the CIS and expansion into Europe.
4. «The Big Trade» - Russian Companies Struggling for Downstream Projects and Foreign Companies – for Upstream Ones
(July 2, 2007)
Foreign companies have experienced a sharp increase of pressure on them with the approach of the elections.
The terms of work of nonresident companies in Russia are being changed dramatically. The companies are to give away their control shares in all upstream projects like it is happening with Sakhalin and Kovykta projects. It is not money that the Russian national companies are interested in. It is a large-scale assets exchange that they try to make their foreign partners agree on and that is the major task of an «energy superpower».
The report provides analysis of changes in operation rules for foreign companies and possible ways to win in this situation.
5. Oil and Gas Complex and Putin’s Energy Project
(August 6, 2007)
The main task of Putin before the elections is to minimize risks of changing his political status after the elections by means of accumulating significant energy resources.
In the past few years Putin has been persistent in realizing his real energy strategy which is not announced in any official document:
When hiring former European politicians Putin understands that the ability to control significant economic assets is the most important for his «life after the presidency». Creating a company of the world level means becoming a member of the world elite. But on the other hand, it is important to exclude risks of repeating the situation like one happened to Yeltsin and «his family» when they rapidly lost both their power and properties.
6. Oil and Gas Clashes between the Russian Power Successors
(October 8, 2007)
Election campaigns are coming to a head in Russia. But the real struggle is going on among the two real forces which are “Saint-Petersburg siloviki” and “Saint-Petersburg liberals”. The struggle for the oil and gas assets is a real «political fundraising» for them in the attempt to support their candidates to Putin’s successor.
At present President Putin holds to September a principle of sharing the control over the oil and gas complex between different nomenclature-political groups. And in the long run we will see two candidates – «gas candidate» and «oil candidate». Besides, President Putin is to solve the problem of preventing the process of the assets redistribution that might be started after him resigning. At the same time the task for his potential successors is to save their oil and gas resources in case of defeat in elections.
7. Merger of Gazprom and RAO UES of Russia and New Gas and Electricity Pricing System
(November 12, 2007)
The outcomes of the energy reform can differ dramatically from expected.
While its initial task is to ensure competition between electricity producers, in practice, it can result in merging of the two energy monopolies. Gazprom has been very active buying energy generating assets that is in accordance with the strategy of the gas concern to become an energy company announced by Alexei Miller.
The major energy resources producer is acquiring a power company which can result in further market monopolization and significant price increase. Basically, struggling together for the tariffs increase is one of the reasons of the possible scenario. With the situation of sharp gas shortage Gazprom has no options. However, this process coincides with the beginning of the elections which makes impossible inflation decrease and threatens industrial development.
8. Government regulation of the oil and gas industry in 2007 and future considerations for 2008
(December 27, 2007)
The report analyses whether President Putin and the key elite groups have managed to achieve the main goals in the sphere of controlling the companies of the oil and gas industry in 2007.
The paper covers changes in taxation system and rules of working of foreign companies. The study also represents macro-economic results of the year for the industry with detailed statistics.
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.
Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
We traditionally conclude the year with our final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the outgoing year. The report analyzes preliminary production results, main state decisions concerning the sector, the struggle for property, changes in export policies, and, certainly, forecasts of the sector development in the medium-term perspective.
Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
The new report analyses the condition of the EU gas market, considers regulation practices and new initiatives planned for introduction, reviews infrastructure projects, and assesses prospects of the European gas market in the medium term.
Main regulators of oil and gas battles
Russia's political system has clearly become vibrant. Resignations and new appointments, personnel purging and scandals – these factors have become a new norm of current politics in Russia. Administrative competition in the country is growing, and it has evident outcomes in the oil and gas sector. The number of conflicts is expanding, while the role of state regulators is becoming very significant. Moreover, interests of companies in the sector do not always coincide, which puts regulators into a complicated situation. The National Energy Security Fund is focusing on key sectoral conflicts that relevant ministries and services are engaged in.
Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
Developments in the Middle East attract great attention. Many experts believe this region plays a major role in formation of oil prices and the future of the world market of hydrocarbons. The situation in the region is indeed developing very quickly. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has put an end to plans of creating OPEC-2. Saudi Arabia is changing its strategy, while Iran is increasing its presence on the world oil market; the latter also intends to become a serious natural gas exporter being ready to join the South Corridor project and intriguing against Russia. Meanwhile, the war in Syria may intensify at any moment affecting Iran’s production potential and Turkey’s transit possibilities. These events directly influence the supply of hydrocarbons on the market. It means all oil producers are concerned about them, at least because they need to understand the level of oil prices in the future.
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