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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2008
The Fuel & Energy
Complex of Russia:
Reality and Possibilities
The NESF presents a series of analytical reports devoted to development problems of Russian oil and gas complex, mechanism of decision-making process in Russian policy, situation in key institutes of executive authority, redistribution processes within powerful authorities.
Our subscribers have an opportunity to be deeply informed on situation in Russian oil and gas complex and development strategies of connected with it oil, gas and electric power industries. We offer our subscribers a comprehensive analysis of the state of the Russian energy sector and scenarios of its development in mid-future.
All materials and sources used for issuing the reports are thoroughly verified and analyzed by our experts. The information of NESF is based on industry statistics, data of oil and gas companies, information of federal and regional mass-media, materials of conferences and round tables.
The series consists of 8 reports which are issued within February-December 2008
1. Statutory Framework of the Oil and Gas Industry
(Marh 3, 2008)
Vladimir Putin has outlined approximate framework of the new political system. So it is already possible to make conclusions regarding the political environment in which the energy industry will be developing. The legislative framework of the industry is highly important as well. The previous State Duma did not pass all the bills it planned, including the new edition of the Subsoil Law, Foreign Investments in Strategic Spheres Law.
The new study analyzes new draft laws that the lower house will be dealing with, focusing on the composition of the new Duma from the standpoint of energy corporations’ lobbyists.
2. Gazprom: What Future is in Store for the Company under the «new» Putin and Medvedev?
(April 21, 2008)
Gazprom remains the top company in the fuel and energy sector of Russia. This is also the main company for Putin, who remains the most significant player both in home politics and energy. The dominating power clans are fighting for control of Gazprom and western corporations are craving for partnership. In the mean time, Gazprom is facing strong resistance to its expansion plans.
The study focuses on the following subjects: feasibility of Gazprom’s new production projects and the development of the unified gas-supply system, recent personnel turnover in the company and the extent of the power clans’ influence on Gazprom, assets swap strategies with western energy majors, relations with independent gas producers. The main goal is to understand the role of the monopoly in post-Putin Russia.
3. New Configuration of Political Power and the Oil and Gas Industry Management System
(June 9, 2008)
The presidential election is over, the new government is formed, the new authority of prime minister and status of Vladimir Putin are clear. It is important to analyze how the new energy management system works, who makes essential decisions.
The focus is on the role of Vladimir Putin and the power clans around him in the new management system.
4. War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia
(July 9, 2008)
The competition between Russian and anti-Russian pipeline projects in the south of Europe is escalating. The fight is on for the hydrocarbon reserves of the Caspian Region, Central Asia, and Iran, as well as transport routes. China is wading into the energy truck between Russia and the West in an attempt to redirect supply channels to it.
5. Nationalization and Privatization in the Oil and Gas Industry
(August 27, 2008)
On the one hand, we are witnessing rapid nationalization tendencies in the industry. On the other, assets are being taken out of government control. Each of the power clans is trying to establish optimal control of the industry that would include both state-owned firms and assets owned by veiled shareholders. It appears that assets are being taken from former owners but not all of them arrive under government control.
The Putin’s clans are trying to minimize risks through this shadow privatization.
6. Main Global Energy Trends and the Place of Russian Companies
(October 8, 2008)
The study is devoted to the conflict between the world of upstream and the world of downstream. Western corporations are trying to fight local nationalizations, Russian, Middle Eastern, and Latin American companies are in their turn trying to combat the snobbery of multinational majors. A fierce war is on for assets and the stakes are extremely high.
The study analyzes the strategies of foreign companies in the Russian market and those of Russian companies overseas and offers mid-term forecast.
7. Domestic Market: Current Status and Possibilities
(November 12, 2008)
Power industry reform is drawing towards completion. In summer 2008 RAO UES of Russia should be liquidated. Electricity and gas are turning into exchange commodities. The questions we ask are ‘how will the government regulate gas and electricity prices?’; ‘how will suppliers-consumers relations develop?’; ‘will the domestic market suffer severe shortages?’
The goal of the study is to understand visible and obscure mechanisms of the gas and electricity market’s work.
8. Government Control of the Oil and Gas Industry in 2008 and Possibilities in 2009
(December 29, 2008)
This study is our traditional work. We have been summing up political and economic results of the year for many consecutive years now.
The focus is on the changes in oil and gas management system, redistribution of assets, competition between power clans for property, tax and customs innovations, economic state of upstream and downstream segments. At the end of the study we offer a forecast for the next year, a look into economic possibilities and political dangers.
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.
Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
We traditionally conclude the year with our final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the outgoing year. The report analyzes preliminary production results, main state decisions concerning the sector, the struggle for property, changes in export policies, and, certainly, forecasts of the sector development in the medium-term perspective.
Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
The new report analyses the condition of the EU gas market, considers regulation practices and new initiatives planned for introduction, reviews infrastructure projects, and assesses prospects of the European gas market in the medium term.
Main regulators of oil and gas battles
Russia's political system has clearly become vibrant. Resignations and new appointments, personnel purging and scandals – these factors have become a new norm of current politics in Russia. Administrative competition in the country is growing, and it has evident outcomes in the oil and gas sector. The number of conflicts is expanding, while the role of state regulators is becoming very significant. Moreover, interests of companies in the sector do not always coincide, which puts regulators into a complicated situation. The National Energy Security Fund is focusing on key sectoral conflicts that relevant ministries and services are engaged in.
Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
Developments in the Middle East attract great attention. Many experts believe this region plays a major role in formation of oil prices and the future of the world market of hydrocarbons. The situation in the region is indeed developing very quickly. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has put an end to plans of creating OPEC-2. Saudi Arabia is changing its strategy, while Iran is increasing its presence on the world oil market; the latter also intends to become a serious natural gas exporter being ready to join the South Corridor project and intriguing against Russia. Meanwhile, the war in Syria may intensify at any moment affecting Iran’s production potential and Turkey’s transit possibilities. These events directly influence the supply of hydrocarbons on the market. It means all oil producers are concerned about them, at least because they need to understand the level of oil prices in the future.
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