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Announcement of a series of analytical reports «The fuel and energy complex of Russia» - 2013
The Fuel & Energy
Complex of Russia:
Reality and Possibilities – 2013
The National Energy Security Foundation presents a traditional series of analytical reports devoted to main problems of development of the Russian oil and gas industry. Subscribers are provided with detailed descriptions of the condition of the Russian fuel and energy sector, the state system of administrating the sector as well as scenarios of its development in the medium-term perspective.
The range of sources used includes NESF’s in-house information, sectoral statistics, data from companies operating in the oil and gas sector, laws and bills, information from federal and regional mass media sources, materials of conferences and round-table meetings.
The series consists of 8 (eight) reports to be published in February through December 2013.
1. Russia in struggle for European gas market
The European gas market remains a key one from the point of view of Russian interests.
However, most experts predict soon downfall for Russia: previous forecasts of sharp rise in imports are moved to the recycle bin, and there are speculations about shale gas production in Europe, its deliveries from the USA, replacing natural gas with fuel and launch of new gas supplies from the Caspian Sea region.
Moreover, practical implementation of the Third Energy Package is in full swing. Russia responds to this by building new gas pipelines as if not paying attention to the eminent threats.
But how really dramatic is Russia’s standing on the European gas market? What direction will its evolution take? How correct are forecasts of experts about fierce struggle of gas sellers for European customers and unavoidable changes in the rules of the game?
2. Development of offshore projects: words or deeds?
Development of the world oil and gas production sector has long and steadily been focused on offshore projects.
Russia seems to realize this tendency, and the future of its oil and gas sector is linked to development of offshore deposits. Quite many statements about rapid shelf development, including the Arctic shelf, are made. The state promises solid assistance – both in terms of infrastructure and taxation. There are speculations about possible liberalization of access to the shelf for private and foreign companies.
However, it is necessary to separate real things from declarations, and find out the degree of feasibility of plans on developing the Arctic and other important offshore projects and the declared dates of their launch.
3. Eastern energy policy of Russia
(August 12, 2013)
Over the past few years Russia has become keen on considering Asian consumers of hydrocarbons. And it is logical. Firstly, our difficulties in relations with the EU are too obvious. Secondly, Asia is the main driver of growth in the world demand for energy resources.
It would be unwise to miss this relatively new market for Russia. Yet, the situation is not that simple. It is necessary not only to develop the infrastructure – the sphere where we have progressed substantially lately, but also to seriously improve the situation around production projects. The resource base of our supplies exists mainly in plans. Moreover, the marketing strategy is important, as the Asian market is not homogeneous and the selection of new energy partners will have both financial and political outcomes.
4. Search for new taxation regime in Russian oil and gas industry
(September 9, 2013)
Fiscal novelties are becoming more noticeable in the oil and gas sectors. However, vectors of changes are often opposite. In the oil industry the state seems to intend to loosen its grip: preferences are allocated to deposits with hard-to-extract oil, to fields of eastern and offshore projects. However, the question is whether the philosophy of taxation will ever change. Oil producers need not local concessions but altering the principle of taxing revenues, not profit.
In the gas industry the Cabinet tries to implement the so-called taxation maneuver that means growth in the fiscal burden on the gas sector that the finance ministry believes to be under-taxed. Gas producers respond by claiming they are ready to reduce investments and close a number of promising production projects.
5. Central Asia and Caspian region: oil and gas geopolitical square
(October 7, 2013)
The Caspian Sea region and Central Asia remain in heightened focus of the EU, Russia, China and the USA. This geopolitical square becomes more and more tangled. On one side, we observe development of production and pipeline projects. On the other side, political risks are rising. This is why it is very important to figure out the region’s real production potential and the pace of implementation of transportation projects, as well as the economy of supplies and political developments.
6. Oil refining: huge plans
Russian oil companies posted grandiose plans on developing their oil processing capacities. This produces strong impression save one “but” – the need for investments in the Russian downstream segment has been spoken about for more than ten years. The question is whether usual declarations will have some follow up.
It is also important to understand the goals of oil companies and what they counts on first of all – on growth in the profit margin on the domestic market or increase in exports of oil products. To realize successfulness of this strategy it is necessary to look into the future of the European market of oil products where Russian companies hope to organize significant changes.
7. Gazprom during Putin’s latest tenure
The past few years have been rather difficult for Gazprom. Competition on foreign markets is growing as well as pressure by domestic competitors that have significant political support.
Questions of preserving Gazprom’s export monopoly and possible restructuring of the company are again on the agenda. Meanwhile, after his comeback to the president’s chair Vladimir Putin seems to be creating additional difficulties for Gazprom rather than assisting it.
8. State regulation of oil and gas sector in 2013, prospects for 2014
NESF traditionally concludes its oil and gas series by this traditional report that sums up main events and tendencies of the year. The report contains analyses of production results of the year, main novelties in the sphere of state regulation of the sector, struggle for assets as well as a traditional forecast of the sector’s development in the medium-term perspective.
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.
Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.
Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2016, prospects for 2017
We traditionally conclude the year with our final report that sums up main events and tendencies of the outgoing year. The report analyzes preliminary production results, main state decisions concerning the sector, the struggle for property, changes in export policies, and, certainly, forecasts of the sector development in the medium-term perspective.
Gazprom: Goliath is not going to surrender
The European gas market: the life in the epoch of the Third Energy Package
The new report analyses the condition of the EU gas market, considers regulation practices and new initiatives planned for introduction, reviews infrastructure projects, and assesses prospects of the European gas market in the medium term.
Main regulators of oil and gas battles
Russia's political system has clearly become vibrant. Resignations and new appointments, personnel purging and scandals – these factors have become a new norm of current politics in Russia. Administrative competition in the country is growing, and it has evident outcomes in the oil and gas sector. The number of conflicts is expanding, while the role of state regulators is becoming very significant. Moreover, interests of companies in the sector do not always coincide, which puts regulators into a complicated situation. The National Energy Security Fund is focusing on key sectoral conflicts that relevant ministries and services are engaged in.
Middle East: an earthquake on the world market of hydrocarbons
Developments in the Middle East attract great attention. Many experts believe this region plays a major role in formation of oil prices and the future of the world market of hydrocarbons. The situation in the region is indeed developing very quickly. A conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran has put an end to plans of creating OPEC-2. Saudi Arabia is changing its strategy, while Iran is increasing its presence on the world oil market; the latter also intends to become a serious natural gas exporter being ready to join the South Corridor project and intriguing against Russia. Meanwhile, the war in Syria may intensify at any moment affecting Iran’s production potential and Turkey’s transit possibilities. These events directly influence the supply of hydrocarbons on the market. It means all oil producers are concerned about them, at least because they need to understand the level of oil prices in the future.
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