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EU keeps luring Turkmenistan into Nabucco

In early March the European Commission named 43 energy projects that are to make substantial contribution to restoration of the EU economy and strengthen security of energy supplies by creating a transboundary infrastructure. Some 2.3bn euros are planned to be allocated on implementation of 31 gas and 12 electrical energy projects, including 200m euros on Nabucco. Meanwhile, in the period from March 1 to 4 Turkmenistan was visited by Lord Hunt, UK Minister of State for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, EU Special Representative for Central Asia and Georgia Pierre Morel and US Department of State Special Envoy for Eurasian Energy Richard Morningstar. The mentioned measures are obviously continuation of attempts to promote the gas pipeline project amid noticeable resistance of suppliers. Neither Turkmenistan nor Iran has been secured as a key supplier of gas for Nabucco, although it is practically impossible to fill in the pipeline without these countries since Iraq and Azerbaijan do not have enough resources. This is why a real diplomatic pressure is applied to gain support of Turkmen leader Gurbanguly Berdymukhamedov. The EC's promise to allocate money on Nabucco is aimed at forming public illusion of finding solution of this problem by settling financial issues. In reality the 200m euros is just a minor part of necessary expenses; European energy companies and creditors are not hurrying to sign to the multibillion expenditure. Nabucco problems are also caused by Turkey's complicated position; there are risks of deterioration of relations between Turkey and the USA over the recent approval of the Armenia Genocide resolution by the US House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. Disputes between Turkey and Azerbaijan over transit and possible re-exports have not been fully settled either. In this situation Ankara may specially demonstrate greater loyalty to Russia's South Stream project, which is objectively a direct competitor of Nabucco.

However, problems around Nabucco do not at all mean there is a 100% guarantee of South Stream's implementation; the latter project also has rather serious risks related inter alia to its very high cost and not quite definite prospects of the gas demand in Europe in the next few decades as well as gas production development in Russia.

By Stanislav Mitrakhovich, NESF leading expert


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