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Main page > Comments > Actual topics > Libyan risks for energy balance growing
Libyan risks for energy balance growing
Confrontation between Qaddafi's forces and rebels continues. Combat operations do not bring domination to either side but rather result in the stalemate situation of permanent chaos. The latter is a very disadvantageous situation for national exports of hydrocarbons as they require stability and existence of some government to make contracts with.
The consequences of a military operation by the USA and its allies against Qaddafi may be hard to forecast. Direct interference of these players can theoretically eliminate "the leader of the Libyan revolution" like the Soviet Union acted against Hafizullah Amin in 1979, but this may cause sharp discontent in the Arab world that is actually not quite happy about Washington's participation in the Middle East affairs. But even if Qaddafi resigns, this will not guarantee stable work of the Libyan oil and gas industry - civil war in the country may well continue between different ethnic and social groups.
The variant of Qaddafi staying in power for some time does not settle the problem. On the contrary, there are variants that "the revolution leader" may be ready to destroy the country's oil infrastructure in a critical moment. According to media reports, the Libyan Air Force has lately bombed Ras Lanuf controlled by rebels, a strategically important oil center located 600km to the east from Tripoli.
By Stanistav Mitrakhovich, NESF leading expert
Special report:
Nord Stream 2 and Ukraine: Costs Should Decide
There has been much discussion about how Russia – Europe’s biggest gas supplier – can continue to supply gas to Europe over the coming decades in the most secure and cost efficient way. Gazprom and its European partners have decided that building two additional pipelines through the Baltic Sea (Nord Stream 2) is the best commercial solution to secure future gas supplies for the EU, where gas production continues to decline and demand is expected to grow.Shale Revolution: Myths and Realities
The boom in shale gas production in the US and its wide-ranging influence on markets rocked the gas world. Liquefied gas deliveries were redirected, altering the already fragile balance of demand and supply in traditional markets for pipeline gas in Europe.Liquefied Natural Gas Outlook: Expectations and Reality
World market has shown interest to liquefied gas. Russia has so far been aside of it. However, producers have announced several large LNG projects. The new study will help investigate this delicate subject and understand what is in store for LNG production and export in the nearest years.Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:
State regulation of the oil and gas sector in 2023, 2024 outlook
The year 2023 posed a serious challenge to the Russian oil and gas sector that was subjected to extremely tough sanctions that could have led to collapse in exports of crude oil and petroleum products. The oil industry and corresponding regulatory mechanisms were tested throughout the year. The state, being in dire need of financial resources, had to save the chicken that lays golden eggs. How well is it coping with this task?Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
The year 2023 saw an even larger drop in Russian exports of pipeline gas to Europe. In the past two years, Gazprom failed to export some 120 bcm of natural gas, and these quantities are now locked up in Russia. Another difficult case concerns extension of the current gas transit contract with Ukraine, which expires at the end of 2024. Gazprom is already looking for new opportunities.New Logistics of Russian Oil Business
When the G7 and the EU as of 5 December 2022 imposed an embargo on oil from Russia and the price cap mechanism that was later complemented with the same measures against petroleum products, Western analysts confidently predicted inevitable collapse in Russian exports by at least one-third. The new report explains in detail how the mechanism of Russian oil transport and sales works and whether Western companies remain in this business.Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
The Energy Strategy to 2050 was originally supposed to be approved before 15 September 2022, yet it was never adopted even as of November 2023. Moreover, not even a draft of the ES 2050 has been published yet. On the one hand, this vividly demonstrates the attitude to strategic documents on energy. It turns out that the industry on the whole copes with the unprecedented pressure of sanctions even without official strategies. On the other hand, Russian oil and gas has been facing really serious challenges that cannot be taken lightly. And immediate problems are a reflection of long-term threats too.Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
European sanctions and Brussels’ policy of abandoning Russian energy resources plus the destroyed Baltic gas pipelines have shut in Russia a respectable volume of pipeline gas that cannot promptly be sent to alternative markets. This would seem a strong argument in favour of developing LNG production in Russia. The new NESF report must give the answer to the question about what part of the plans for dramatic increase in LNG production in Russia can be considered realistic.All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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