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War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia

War for Energy Resources of Southern and Central Europe, the Caspian Region and Central Asia

The struggle between the Russian and anti-Russian pipeline projects in the South and Center of Europe becomes more and more intense. A dramatic fighting for hydrocarbons of the Caspian Sea, Central Asia and Iran, as well as the transportation routes has been in progress.

The EU keeps saying about the necessity of finding an alternative to Russia as the main supplier of hydrocarbons to the EU. The countries of the Central Asian Region are proposed to play this role. Russia answers to these moves both by promising to start exporting hydrocarbons to China and by negotiating on new joint gas and oil pipeline projects in the EU with the European companies. “The export wars” become more and more hot.

In its new report NESF studies thoroughly the following issues:

  • Future development of the gas market in Europe and the forecast of gas demand

    • Is it possible to find an alternative to the Russian gas?
    • Alleged and actual sources of hydrocarbon supplies to the EU

  • The place and role of Ukraine and Belarus as the main transit countries of the Russian hydrocarbons to the EU

    • The current condition of the gas system, and issues associated with investments, rates and “shadow” export

  • Fight for Central Asia

    • The possibility of the Kazakh oil export into the European market
    • The potential expansion of the Caspian pipeline system
    • Burgas-Alexandrupolis project as a potential long-term project
    • The Baltic export against that of the Black Sea
    • Competition for the control of the Turkmen and Uzbek gas
    • The role of the EU, China and the US

  • Russian and anti-Russian projects of oil and gas supply to the EU

    • Economic and political prospects of the new pipelines:
      • the South Stream
      • the Blue Stream
      • the White Stream
      • Nabucco

  • Future short- and mid-term scenarios

    • The possible Russia’s moves on diversification of its risks in natural gas and oil transit to the EU

 

The contents of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. How much gas Europe needs? 4
Chapter 2. Condition of the Pipeline System in Ukraine and Belarus 10
2.1. Description of the Ukrainian Gas Transport System 10
2.2. Description of the Belarusian Gas Transport System 15
2.3. Key Risks to Russian Natural Gas Transit across Ukraine and Belarus 17
Chapter 3. Russia’s Projects for the Transport of Gas to Southern and Central Europe Round Ukraine and Belarus 33
3.1. Blue Stream 33
3.2. South Stream 34
Chapter 4. Fight for Gas from Central Asia: New Risks for Russia 37
Chapter 5. Problems of Oil Export to Southern and Central Europe 48
5.1. Will There Be Enough Oil? 48
5.2. Russian and Anti-Russian Projects 49
Key conclusions 57
Date of issue July 21, 2008

 
If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

Other issues:
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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.
Oil and Gas Sector Regulation in 2022 and Prospects for 2023
Gazprom at the Forefront of Economic and Political Battles with Europe
Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07
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