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Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square

Central Asia and Caspian Sea region: geopolitical gas square

The Caspian Sea region and Central Asia remain in heightened focus of the EU, Russia, China and the USA. This geopolitical square is becoming more and more tangled.

On one side, we are observing development of production and pipeline projects. On the other side, political risks are rising.

This is why it is very important to figure out the region’s real production potential and the pace of implementation of transportation projects, as well as the economy of supplies and political developments.

This report analyzes progress in development of resources, problems of infrastructure and commercial relations between suppliers and buyers, as well as geopolitical aspects of struggle for Caspian gas resources.

Key topics of the report:

  • The region’s resource base

    • The current and forecasted production level
    • The real situation with development of deposits in Azerbaijan
    • Development of new resources in Turkmenistan (Southern Yolotan, offshore projects), projects in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Exotica, so far: Tajikistan and Afghanistan
  • Transportation hopes of Europe

    • Choosing the route of gas deliveries from phase 2 of Shah Deniz
    • The fate of Southern Corridor and possibilities of its expansion by engaging other countries: Turkmenistan and Iraq
  • Russia’s pipeline response

    • South Stream: success and main problems
  • China’s swiftly growing role in the region

    • China’s "quiet expansion": China’s gradual turning into real leader in Central Asia
    • Strengthening of geo-economic and political ties of Beijing and local regimes
    • Projects of gas pipelines to China
  • Situation on sales markets

    • Demand for natural gas in Southern Europe and Turkey
    • Sale of assets: unsuccessful privatization of DEPA, SOCAR buying DESFA
  • Medium-term forecast of developments


Contents of the report:

Introduction 3
Chapter 1. Azerbaijan’s Choice. Failure of Nabucco, Launch of Southern Corridor to Italy 4
1.1. Production in Azerbaijan 4
1.2. Gas Marketing. Domestic Market and Exports 13
1.3. Azerbaijan-Italy Corridor. Prospects of Other Projects 16
Chapter 2. Central Asian Gas 20
2.1. Turkmenistan 21
2.2. Projects in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan 25
2.3. Gazprom in Kyrgyzstan 27
2.4. New Resources in Tajikistan and Afghanistan 28
Chapter 3. Battle of Gas Pipelines 31
3.1. Asia-China Gas Pipeline 34
3.2. Turkmenistan Changes Gas Export Policy 37
3.3. TAPI Project 38
3.4. Half-Launching Southern Corridor, Mist Around Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline 41
3.5. South Stream 43
Chapter 4. Situation on Potential Sales Markets 46
4.1. Countries in Southern Europe 46
4.2. Italy 48
4.3. Greece 49
4.1. Bulgaria 51
4.5. Turkey 52
4.6. China 55
Chapter 5. Medium-Term Forecast of Developments 59
5.1. European Direction 59
5.2. Chinese Direction 60
5.3. Indian-Pakistani Direction 61
Date of release: October 7, 2013

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