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Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?

Global Oil Market: What Prices Should One Expect?

Many are afraid of volatility on the oil market. Now prices very quickly recoil to 30 dollars per barrel, now they push the 80 dollar mark. Total chaos dominates forecasts by leading Western analysts. Some predict prices at 100, while others their forthcoming collapse.

Who is right?

NESF has also decided to ask the one-billion-dollar question: how much oil will cost and what factors influence oil prices in reality.

From the new research paper you will learn:

  • What has a stronger influence on prices: the physical oil market or speculative factors

    • Which of them should be paid maximum attention to
  • How the OPEC+ deal works

    • Why the Saudis needed it
    • Whether the deal has achieved its aim of reducing oil stores
    • How speculators react to news about the deal
  • Demand for oil and petroleum products

    • Demand dynamics and regional structure
    • How demand for oil in a country should be counted and what pitfalls exist here
    • Analysis of the domestic market in the US and in China, the largest users of oil
  • Difficulties of statistical analysis

    • Why everyone evaluates the current situation on the global market differently
  • What one is to expect from America

    • How oil production in the US will change and how this will affect global prices
    • Manipulation of WTI prices
  • Saudi Arabia’s strategies

  • Russia’s strategies

    • Whether there should be withdrawal from the OPEC+ deal
    • What prices should one get ready for
  • A medium-term forecast of developments

Contents of the report: 

Introduction. Factors affecting oil market pricing 4
Stored oil reserves: formal criterion of achieving OPEC+ deal objective 10
Demand for oil: global trend or statistical speculation? 18
Current demand data and historic changes in forecasts. Structure of demand for petroleum products: market expectations 18
What country demand for oil is: difference in calculation methodology shown using examples of US and Chinese oil balances 23
Refining margins as missing factor in demand/supply models 31
Supply side: difference in methodology or manipulation of market? 38
US shale oil production as a result of fashion for petrodollars. Evaluation of american independent operators’ viability 42
Formal contribution of cartel to OPEC+ deal 47
Change of maximum production capacity in OPEC countries 55
OPEC export policy: who is the real market maker? 58
Dynamics of export from OPEC & non-OPEC countries: how oil supply to physical market changed 58
Saudi Arabia’s invariably leading role on oil market 65
Balances aside: mechanisms of real fight for key markets 72
Speculators in market: how critical situation is 79
Medium-term forecast of developments. What is in store for OPEC+ deal? 85
Appendix 1: profit/loss from storing oil in tankers under circumstances of contango in 2015-2017 89
Appendix 2: US crude oil export and import by locations 90
Appendix 3: structure of crude oil import into China 92
Appendix 4: classification of crudes by quality 93
Unit conversion table 95
Abbreviations 96
Date of release: July 27, 2018

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Analytical series “The Fuel and Energy Complex of Russia”:

Gazprom in the period of expulsion from the European market. Possible evolution of the Russian gas market amid impediments to exports
Russia’s New Energy Strategy: on Paper and in Fact
Outlook for Russian LNG Industry
Russian Energy and West One Year after Ukraine Conflict Began: Are There Connections Still?
Green Agenda in Russia during Bitter Conflict with West
After February 2022 the agenda was radically rewritten. Western companies began leaving Russia en masse, economic relations with the West were drastically reduced, and the Russian economy began to be pushed violently from the global economic space, hemmed in by sweeping sanctions. All that was, to put it mildly, not the best background for talking about ESG. Especially because tasks of survival and stability under unprecedented pressure became the priority in the economy. In late 2022, however, attempts to reanimate the ESG agenda already became obvious. The message is put across insistently that it is important to Russia regardless of the foreign policy situation. While earlier the “green pivot” was seen as an opportunity to attract Western investors and their technological solutions to Russia, now Keynesian reliance on domestic manufacture is discussed.

All reports for: 2015 , 14 , 13 , 12 , 11 , 10 , 09 , 08 , 07

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