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Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009

Regulation of Oil and Gas Sector in 2008 and Prospects for 2009

The Fund’s traditional report summarises the key developments in the oil and gas industry this year.

The year 2008 has proved very complicated and controversial. A sharp rise in oil prices was replaced with an equally dramatic fall in them. Vladimir Putin moved to the office of prime minister and reshuffled the entire system of administration in the sector. A radical tax reform began. The operating rules for non-residents changed. Wars between state companies and redistribution of property were in full swing.

The report offers an in-depth discussion of the following subjects:

  • Economic situation in the industry

    • Who capitalised on expensive oil?
    • Key implications of the decline in oil and gas prices
    • Situation in the upstream segment
    • «Presents from Putin» and their ability to stop the fall in the oil industry
    • Trends in the export of hydrocarbons
  • New political system of administration in the oil and gas sector: first outputs

    • Role of Putin as prime minister in the sector
    • Activities of Igor Sechin as deputy prime minister in charge of energy
    • Bureaucratic wars for geology and ecology
    • Distribution of licences between state companies
    • War between Rosneft and Gazprom on different fronts
    • Battle for the shelf, Eastern Siberia, and the Far East
  • Changes in the export strategy

    • «Wars of pipelines»: BPS-2 vs. ESPO
    • End of the formation of the pro-Chinese and pro-European «parties» in the Russian fuel and energy sector
  • Non-residents in Russia

    • Tougher control over strategic investment
  • Foreign expansion of Russian energy companies

    • Western and «anti-Western» lines in the expansion of co-operation
    • Attempts to proceed with the «exchange of assets» policy in relations with Western majors
    • Intensification in South America and North Africa
  • Medium-term forecast

    • Scenarios with different levels of oil prices

The contents of the report:

Introduction 2
Chapter 1. Economic Situation in Sector 4
Chapter 2. New Political System of Administration in Oil and Gas Sector: First Outputs 11
2.1. Role of Putin as Prime Minister in the Sector 11
2.2. Activities of Igor Sechin as Deputy Prime Minister in Charge of Energy 12
2.3. Changes in Ministries Responsible for Oil and Gas 13
Chapter 3. Fight for Determination of Export Strategy 22
3.1. «Wars of Pipelines»: BPS-2vs. ESPO 22
3.2. End of Formation of Pro-Chinese and Pro-European «Parties» in Russian Fuel and Energy Sector 26
Chapter 4. Wars between State Companies 29
4.1. «Eastern Front» and Offshore «Battles of Giants» 29
4.2. Fight Between State Companies over Access to UGSS 35
Chapter 5. Personnel Policy in State Companies 38
5.1. Staff Wars in Gazprom 38
5.2. Staff Wars in Rosneft 41
Chapter 6. Foreign Expansion of Russian Energy Companies 43
6.1. Energy Co-operation with the West 43
6.2. …. and Its «Alternative » 50
Chapter 7. Non-residents in Russia: Unexpected Opportunities 58
Chapter 8. Forecast of Key Development Trends in Russian Fuel and Energy strong> 63
Date of issue January 12, 2009

If you are interested to obtain please contact » Elena Kim

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Gazprom is being actively thrown out of the market. Its annual supplies to Europe have shrunk from the previous 150 billion to 65 billion cubic metres of gas. European officials assure that they have already learnt how to live without Russian gas, so they will bring its purchases down to but nominal values in 2023. Their main hope is liquefied natural gas. Today the EU must make a crucial decision: whether it has passed the point of no return in gas business with Russia and whether it is certain that its economy will endure without supplies of Russian pipeline gas. Or, on the contrary, Europe will realise after all that the gas balance will not be achieved and the payment for so headlong a rush for LNG will be disproportionate. Assessment of the potential volume of LNG that will appear on the market before the end of the current decade will be the most important factor for making the decision.

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